Wahala don dey for oil market as price of crude just crash like say na stone wey dem throw for river. The whole thing happen because US and Iran don agree to ceasefire for two weeks, and dem say dem go open back the Strait of Hormuz wey Iran bin block. Brent crude wey be international standard fall from above $118 reach around $92 per barrel just for one day. Na big, big drop wey we never see for years.
As oil price dey fall, stock market for everywhere just dey jump up like say dem see money. For Asia, Japan Nikkei 225 rise 4.8%, South Korea Kospi gain 5.6%. For Europe, Germany Dax jump 4.6%, while Paris and London market follow dey climb. For US side, futures for S&P 500 dey show say e go rise 2.3%, Dow futures rise 2%. Na relief rally dem dey call am, because investors dey happy say the war tension don reduce small.
But make nobody think say everything don return to normal. The ceasefire na just two weeks, and Iran don talk say e no be the end of the war. Dem say their military go dey manage the passage for Strait of Hormuz, and dem even dey talk about collecting transit fees from tankers wey wan pass. Some reports say Iran don already charge shipping companies around $2 million to guarantee safe passage. If dem continue to collect this kain money, e fit add about $1 per barrel to the cost of oil wey dey pass through the strait.
Even if tankers begin to move now, experts dey warn say e go take time before supply return to how e be before. Alan Gelder from Wood Mackenzie talk say the whole supply chain need to return to normal, with ships getting to the right place and refineries resuming operation. Him believe say e go take “weeks, not days”. Willie Walsh, the boss of International Air Transport Association (IATA), talk say even if traffic through the waterway resume now, e go take months for supplies to reach the level wey dem need to be at.
For UK side, drivers no go see quick drop for petrol price. Simon Williams from RAC talk say despite today’s plunging crude oil price, e remain higher than pre-war levels and drivers should not expect significant drop in costs at the pump soon. Him talk say some smaller independent forecourts wey buy oil as e cost on the day rather than in advance at set price fit be quicker to pass on reductions, but much go depend on stability of the ceasefire.
Food prices still dey worry people. The Food and Drink Federation for UK talk say the ceasefire no end the “long-term uncertainty”. Their chief economist Dr Liliana Danila talk say recovery to supply chains and energy infrastructure in the Gulf go take between six months and one year. This mean say manufacturers go continue to feel the impact of supply chain disruptions for oil, gas, fertiliser, packaging materials and essential cleaning chemicals, keeping costs under strain for months to come.
For energy bills, Dr Craig Lowrey from Cornwall Insight talk say ceasefire ease some of the immediate pressure on gas markets but “does not wipe the slate clean”. Him talk say if the strait open and stay open, e go ease prices and be reflected in the July price cap, but unless prices fall well below where they were before the conflict, the wholesale price rises wey we see through March and early April go still feed through to bills.
The market dey watch closely to see if tankers really begin to move. MarineTraffic, ship-tracking platform, talk say dem get “early signs” of this happening. Dem say Greek-owned bulk carrier and Liberia-flagged vessel don transit the strait early Wednesday. But as of Tuesday, Kpler report say 187 tankers laden with 172 million barrels of seaborne crude and refined oil products still remain inside the Gulf. That backlog no go clear overnight.
For Canadian energy stocks wey dey sell off today alongside crude, some analysts dey see opportunity. Dem talk say for investors wey dey look for energy exposure, today’s ceasefire-driven selloff fit be potential entry point into businesses wey spend months generating extraordinary cash flow at much higher prices. Dem mention companies like Cenovus Energy, Whitecap Resources, Freehold Royalties, Vermilion Energy, and ARC Resources as five TSX companies wey fit keep earning at $90 oil.
Cenovus Energy combine upstream oil sands production with downstream refining—model wey design to balance results when crude prices and refining margins move out of sync. Whitecap Resources offer more direct exposure to Canadian oil production. Freehold Royalties collect royalties rather than drilling wells, which mean lower capital needs. Vermilion Energy add geographic diversification across Canada, Europe, and beyond. ARC Resources na quality name in the group—scaled in natural gas and liquids.
Bob McNally, founder and president of Rapidan Energy Group, talk say “The market has been eager to get good news but it remains to be seen if the Strait of Hormuz opens fully. That’s the whole ball of wax and so far Washington and Tehran seem to be talking past each other on that.” Karl Schamotta of Corpay Currency Research write say “Beyond the near term, Iran’s ruling regime has (arguably) solidified its political control, and has demonstrated its capacity for bringing global oil and gas markets to their knees.”
The war for Middle East—and the effective closure of crucial Strait of Hormuz—don cause the biggest oil supply shock on record, choking off roughly 12 million to 15 million barrels of crude oil a day. Even with word of ceasefire, neither Iran nor United States talk say when e go begin, and attacks take place in Israel, Iran and across Gulf region early Wednesday.
Traders dey remain cautious. The terms under which tankers go dey allowed to pass through the strait remain unclear. Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency report say Iran and Oman plan to charge transit fees—situation wey unlikely to be acceptable to United States and its allies. Iran emphasize say the ceasefire na only temporary. “This is not the end of the war but all military branches should follow the Supreme Leader order and cease their fire,” according to statement read out on state-run news channel IRIB.
For now, oil price don crash and stock market don rise, but everybody dey watch to see wetin go happen after two weeks. The ceasefire bring immediate relief, but long-term uncertainty still dey hang for air like harmattan dust.
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