Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) don announce say dem dey work towards bringing inflation rate for Nigeria go down reach single-digit level. Dis announcement come as Nigeria dey face fresh threat from global economic wahala wey fit push inflation back up.
According to CBN Deputy Governor for Economic Policy, Dr. Muhammad Abdullahi, di bank don begin transition to inflation-targeting monetary policy framework. Dis new approach mean say CBN go focus on keeping inflation low and stable as dia main target. Abdullahi talk say dis shift na major change for how Nigeria dey run monetary policy.
Di CBN say dem don implement several reforms to support dis transition. Dem include return to orthodox monetary policy tools, withdrawal from quasi-fiscal activities, and foreign exchange market reforms wey include rate unification and electronic trading platforms. Di bank also mention say banking sector recapitalisation and better coordination with fiscal authorities don help stabilise di economy.
Abdullahi reveal say headline inflation don drop sharply from 34.8 percent for late 2024 to 15.1 percent by early 2026. Di CBN target na to bring inflation down to between 6 to 9 percent for medium term, unless major external shocks happen.
But as CBN dey plan for single-digit inflation, experts dey warn say fresh global challenges fit reverse di progress wey Nigeria don make. National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) report show say inflation rate drop to 15.06 percent for February 2026, but analysts from Afrinvest West Africa talk say ongoing crisis for Middle East don cause crude oil prices to rise to around $105 per barrel.
Dis oil price increase don affect Nigeria directly. Retail prices of petrol don rise to N1,350 per litre, diesel to N1,650 per litre, and cooking gas to N1,400 per kg for many states. Afrinvest warn say dis shock, combined with Nigeria’s structural problems like inadequate power supply, poor road network, and insecurity, fit push inflation up again.
Chief Executive Officer of Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Muda Yusuf, talk say di current geopolitical energy shock pose serious risk to Nigeria’s inflation outlook. Yusuf explain say escalation of tensions between Iran, Israel and United States don trigger surge in crude oil prices above $100 per barrel.
For Nigeria, dis mean higher petrol and diesel prices, increased transportation and logistics costs, rising production costs across sectors, renewed exchange rate pressures, and escalating food prices. Yusuf warn say if dese external pressures continue, di current disinflation trend fit reverse.
National Insurance Commission (NAICOM) Commissioner for Insurance, Mr. Olusegun Ayo Omosehin, also warn say rising tensions for Middle East fit lead to higher insurance costs for Nigerian businesses. Omosehin explain say disruptions around Strait of Hormuz, one of world’s most critical oil transit routes, don affect global insurance market.
As insurers for London begin to adjust pricing for war-risk coverage, di cost go eventually reach Nigeria. Insurance companies for Nigeria rely heavily on international reinsurance, especially for oil and gas risks. By next renewal cycle, industry watchers expect noticeable jump in reinsurance costs wey go filter down to Nigerian corporates as higher premiums.
Despite dese challenges, CBN remain committed to dia inflation-targeting framework. Director of Monetary Policy Department at CBN, Dr. Victor Oboh, talk say collaboration with academic community na critical to improving monetary policy effectiveness. Oboh emphasise say success of inflation targeting depend not only on technical design but also on public trust and communication.
President of Nigerian Economic Society (NES), Dr. Baba Yusuf Musa, praise CBN for dia reform-minded approach. Musa, wey also be Director General of West African Institute for Financial and Economic Management, confirm say NES ready to support CBN’s stabilisation efforts.
Participants from Nigerian universities and policy institutions wey attend di strategic session with CBN express support for di bank’s transition to inflation targeting. Dem describe am as necessary step toward strengthening macroeconomic stability for Nigeria.
As Nigeria dey navigate dese economic challenges, experts recommend several measures to cushion di impact. Afrinvest suggest say Federal Government implement strategic interventions like rolling out affordable country-wide mass transit, healthcare subsidy for low-income bracket, and suspend tariff on importers of food and essential items.
Muda Yusuf recommend say priority go to strengthening domestic refining capacity through provision of stable crude oil supply to local refineries, including Dangote refinery. He also talk say governments at all levels should scale up investment in efficient and affordable public transportation systems.
Yusuf add say fiscal barriers to renewable energy adoption should be removed, with waivers on import duties and taxes on solar equipment. He emphasise say reliable electricity remain di most effective long-term solution to Nigeria’s energy cost crisis.
Di CBN maintain say with sustained policy discipline and credible institutional framework, Nigeria fit achieve low and stable inflation. But di coming months go test how well Nigeria’s economic policies fit withstand global pressures wey dey threaten to reverse recent gains.
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