WASHINGTON, U.S. — Na wetin dey happen wey fit change Canada and U.S. trade relationship plenty. As Canada dey prepare for federal elections, plenty dey wonder how this struggle fit end. For inside one recent meeting, Robert Lighthizer, wey be Donald Trump first term trade czar, talk say hope still dey.
“Wetin dey happen now no go last, everything go dey alright,” Lighthizer tell Canada Strong and Free Network for Ottawa. Him belle dey optimistic say relations go better pass wetin e dey now.
Three outcomes dey possible: the good place, the bad place, and the messy middle. For the good place, Canada go gain economic and military security with plenty trade advantage, especially if U.S. keep taxes on other countries. Lighthizer talk say Canada fit dey better off because their tariffs lower pass others.
“My own analysis be say Canada dey better because CUSMA wey get more value now wey e don pass two months,” Lighthizer talk. But e get small wahala; tariffs still dey on Canadian steel and aluminum. The motor industry still dey face problem wey no clear as different tariffs dey bounce here and there.
One economist from Mexico, Jesús Carrillo, talk say CUSMA dey like life support now due to the uncertainty wey dey structured around trade. Him predict say this trade pact fit survive, but who know wetin go happen next week or next month.
Even U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer talk about how Canada and Mexico dey enjoy special access to U.S. market under CUSMA, but the system dey very shaky.
For the bad place, we don already see some signs. Between December and March, Trump dey threaten Canada economic and national survival. Even though him don reduce the heat for now, everybody dey wonder if e go return to e serious threats after the election.
Soon, trust go need to rebuild, according to Jamie Tronnes, wey be analyst for Center for North American Prosperity and Security. “We need to cool down before we fit talk about our problems. It don hot right now,” she talk.
U.S. get complaints about Canada no meeting defense commitments. On the other hand, Canada dey vex about the tariffs wey dey affect their economy.
Many factors fit still delay process. Right now, the U.S. trade team dey stretched because dem dey handle talks with plenty countries. When negotiations start, Canada priority na to build laws wey go stop Trump from acting like he dey do now wey dey impose tariffs anyhow.
U.S. priorities include Canada digital services tax adjustment, dairy and poultry supply management cuts, and fixing foreign parts inside manufacturing. Lighthizer say this go na be number one for U.S. agenda. He also talk about Canada no dey pay e share for military expenses, so that one go still dey as part of the discussions.
Tronnes dey optimistic say between all these wahala, Canada and U.S. fit eventually find their way back to the good place. She liken the current situation to guillotine, dey wait for chance. “CUSMA still dey alive, but e dey under threat,” she conclude.
Alexander Panetta na Washington-based reporter for CBC News wey don cover American politics and Canada-U.S. issues since 2013. Him don work for Ottawa and Quebec City, reporting on politics and conflicts.
