Lagos, Nigeria — Naira don drop by 2.4% and 2.6% for March 2025 for both the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) and parallel market. This one happen as the naira reach N1,536.82/$ and N1,530.00/1.00, according to the latest Afrinvest Monthly Market Report wey title ‘Analysing Global and Nigerian Economies & Financial Markets.’
AIICO Capital talk say naira dey face plenty pressure for demand despite the $668.8 million intervention wey Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) carry come. “Naira don experience serious depreciation for March 2025 due to persistent demand pressure for the foreign exchange market,” dem talk.
“Even though CBN don intervene with solid dollar sales of $668.8 million, naira still lose 2.97% wey make am close for N1,536.82/$ from N1,492.49/$ at the beginning of the month,” AIICO Capital explain. During dis time, demand no dey slow down, especially from foreign investors and local big companies. Dem also notice say parallel market follow the same trend, lose about N43.50/$, touch N1,536.00/$. Even with mid-month liquidity wey improve from CBN intervention, demand dey still higher than supply.
“For the last week, even with CBN dollar sales and small gain of 0.5 bps, naira still dey suffer under pressure. For quarterly report, naira don depreciate by 7 bps quarter over quarter for NAFEM window. At the same time, external reserves drop by about $110 million to $38.31 billion,” AIICO Capital added.
Looking forward, dem dey expect say CBN go continue with liquidity support to stabilize naira for now. “But global risks, like US tariffs and their retaliatory measures, fit make the market dey volatile and cause capital flight,” di report caution.
CBN don already talk say naira don feel the global economic shake caused by Donald Trump’s new tariffs. Omolara Duke, the Director for Financial Markets Department, confirm say from April 3 to 4, 2025, CBN inject about $197.71 million through sales to the authorized dealers for di FX market. The dollars wey dem sell go between N1,519 and N1,595.20/$, according to analysts.
“Our commitment to ensure adequate liquidity and support the market functioning make CBN sell $197.71 million on Friday, April 4, 2025, to authorized dealers. This action dey fit well with our goal to create a stable, transparent, and efficient forex market,” Duke explain.
Last week, naira don show high volatility as the interbank market dey fluctuate. Early for di week, e steady, dey trade between N1,525–N1,535/$ due to stable CBN support and moderate inflows from abroad. But as mid-week come, demand from outside surge as oil prices drop because of OPEC+ supply hike and global caution from Trump’s tariffs. This one cause high FX demand pressure and limited supply, pushing naira as high as N1,570/$. In spite of CBN intervention, naira still lose 1.97% week over week, close at N1,567.02/$, while foreign reserves dropped by $149 million to $38.15 billion.
Analysts from Afrinvest dey worry say naira go continue to dey stressed because naira-for-crude initiative don stop. Dem dey predict say FX demand go increase as refineries join demand and PMS importers dey source from abroad. “We expect naira to continue to face pressure for di near term unless any major turn of events happen,” dem conclude.
Cardinalstone, for their macroeconomic update, confirm say forex market for Nigeria dey suffer as offshore investors dey run for cover, while local demand for dollar dey increase. “Some concerns dey about wetin go happen if government not meet their revenue target, and higher deficit fit follow,” dem warn. Dem mention say crude production don drop to approximately 1.67 mbpd in February compared to 1.74 mbpd in January, while oil price don fall by 14.2% Year-to-Date.
Marcel Okeke, before chief economist for Zenith Bank, talk say the tariff war led by Trump fit cause inflation worldwide, and Nigeria go dey particularly vulnerable due to their reliance on imports. “We go likely see increase for imported inflation,” he talk.
