Naija naira don show say e get strong heart for inside all dis global wahala wey dey happen, but di price wey we pay for dat stability no be small matter. According to Lukman Otunuga, di Head of Market Research for FXTM Academy, our naira na di second best performing African currency against di dollar for dis year so far. Only Zambian kwacha pass am.
Otunuga yarn say di Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) don follow di promise wey dem make to defend our local currency, especially for March as geopolitical tension just dey increase for everywhere. E dey weigh heavy on emerging market assets. For Naija side, dis week na big one because we dey wait for di March inflation report wey go soon drop.
If di report show say inflation dey ease, e fit give CBN room to cut interest rates. But di funny thing be say, as Naija dey look for way to cut rates, other central banks for world dey plan to hike their own rates to contain inflation wey conflict don cause. Na different strategy entirely.
Di Middle East wahala no dey help matters at all. Recent peace talks between United States and Iran end after 21 hours of negotiation without any agreement. Dem no agree on key issues like Iran nuclear programme and control of Strait of Hormuz. Hours after Trump threaten to block di Strait of Hormuz from Monday 10 am ET.
All dis fresh uncertainty don reflect for market dis morning. Risk aversion don affect equities, while oil benchmarks just dey surge because geopolitical risk premium don increase. Iran don reject US restrictions on shipping and dem don threaten Gulf ports, so market sentiment remain fragile. Everybody dey on high alert.
E worth to note say Strait of Hormuz don effectively close since late February. Dis one dey raise risk of inflation and growth shocks wey fit threaten global economy. For commodity space, oil benchmarks surge as US vow to blockade all vessels wey dey pass through Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude rally as much as 9% to roughly $104 per barrel as supply shock fears return with vengeance. If conflict deepen, oil prices fit remain elevated. Triple digits fit become new normal because supply tightness don reach extreme level.
For gold side, prices initially decline because of rising inflation concerns as oil prices surge. Even though prices jump back above $4700, bears remain in control because inflationary risks dey rise. Expectations for lower rates for 2026 don basically diminish, so gold likely to remain on backfoot with stronger dollar keep bears for game.
Key levels wey dem dey watch for gold na $4825, $4700 and $4600. Otunuga warn say developments around Strait of Hormuz — wey be critical global oil route — continue to pose risks to inflation and economic growth worldwide. If oil prices remain for triple-digit territory, e go affect everything.
So while our naira dey hold strong, di cost na global volatility wey dey shake market. CBN dey try balance things, but external factors like Iran-US tension and oil prices dey make di work hard. Di whole world dey watch as dis geopolitical drama dey unfold, and Naija economy dey caught for middle.
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