No be small wahala o! Nigeria oil sector don face big palava as e dey miss OPEC quota wey dem set. From January 2025 reach January 2026, Naija lose estimated N1.76 trillion due to dis crude oil production wahala. Data wey Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission release show say oil production fall below OPEC target of 1.5 million barrels per day for nine months straight in 2025, and e no change for January 2026 too.
Last year, Nigeria manage produce 1.54 mbpd for January 2025, wey be slight surplus of about 40,000 barrels. June and July also bring small joy as production exceed quota, but the remaining months na different story. February come as 1.47 mbpd, March 1.40 mbpd, and so on. E no reach mark, as we dey expect higher output but wetin we dey see na shortfall.
For February, e mean say we produce 41.16 million barrels compared to 42 million wey OPEC demand, leaving us with bad shortfall of 840,000 barrels for the month. March on top e follow suit, with 43.4 million barrels produced instead of the 46.5 million barrels we suppose see. Dis kind palava no be am alone; we dey miss targets by 10,000 to 110,000 barrels almost every month!
Come check dis: for September, we gathere only 41.7 million barrels when we suppose hit 45 million barrels! Na talk of deficit of 3.3 million barrels we dey yarn here! Even October, November, and December no clear road as dem all dey follow same trend.
For total, Nigeria miss about 18.12 million barrels from January 2025 to January 2026. E mean say we don miss plenty money wey fit help fix wahala for road, school, and other things wey dey choke our people. The experts don talk say dis kind loss dey reflect structural challenges wey dey answer ‘why Nigeria oil sector no dey robust anymore.’ Operational disruptions, security wahala in Niger Delta, e plenty!
Even with Bonny Light oil wey dey fetch beta price, the decline for production still dey bite us. January 2025, e dey $80.76 per barrel, but later drop to $65.90 in May. Na im dey show say regardless of price, if we no fit produce, money no go enter pocket. Dis kind loss fit mean more work for the government, as dem dey project to produce 1.84 million barrels daily in 2026.
Experts don talk say meeting dis targets go depend on practical steps, not just lofty plans. Wumi Iledare, one big name for energy sector, don call for better security, reduce chaos in the sector, and faster processes to make sure we dey produce at maximum capacity.
Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, di new Chief Executive for NUPRC, don gree say she go work to improve production, signing agreement to increase oil output to 2 million barrels by 2027. But time no dey wait for anybody, as Nigerians dey hope say we fit turn things around before e too late.
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