Canadians dey gather across di kontri to celebrate Canada Day, wey mark di birth of di nation 159 years ago. But under di festivities, two big challenges dey test di kontri unity.
For di western province of Alberta, a separatist movement wey dey restless don gain momentum. For a few months, Albertans go vote for referendum on provincial sovereignty. For Quebec, di sovereigntist Parti Quebecois dey ahead for di polls for di upcoming provincial election. Di party don pledge to hold third referendum on independence by 2030 if e win.
“E be year of pressures on Canadian national unity,” na so André Lecours, political science professor for University of Ottawa tok. Prime Minister Mark Carney dey di centre of those tensions, as e dey try to balance competing interests of di provinces while e dey hold di kontri together.
Canada be “worth fighting for,” Carney tok last month, as e promise to campaign for a united kontri for di months ahead. For Wednesday, Carney go travel to Edmonton, im hometown, for a symbolic visit on di kontri birthday, where dem expect am to make di case for national unity.
Historian JDM Stewart tok say Canada vast geography and strong regional identities dey pose unique challenges. “Because e dey so big, and because e dey so regional, e dey create tensions wey don dey with us since di beginning, and we still dey wrestle with dem today,” e tok.
Quebec, a majority French-speaking province, dey fiercely protect im identity and im culture as a distinct society, and don twice hold referenda—for 1980 and 1995—on whether to seek independence. Opinion polls suggest support for independence dey around 30%, roughly unchanged for di last few years. Even so, di Parti Quebecois don enjoy early surge ahead of di provincial election for 5 October. Im leader don unveil a more than 500-page blueprint for an independent Quebec and don pledge to hold third referendum.
Alberta dey face different debate. Following a citizens-led push, Albertans go vote for 19 October to decide whether dem want remain part of Canada or hold a binding vote on separation for later date. Polling suggest support for di “leave” side dey stand between 25% and 30%. Many backers of di movement argue say di energy-rich province don long dey overlooked by decision-makers for Ottawa, di national capital, and say federal environmental policies don hinder Alberta ability to build pipelines and develop im natural resources.
But Professor Lecours argue say dis separatist push dey different from di Western alienation wey don long dey felt for di region, as e call di current drive an “outgrowth” of right-wing populism. “All dese organisations for Alberta, not coincidentally, dem all emerge during di pandemic,” e tok. E also note say di movement “dey occur for di complete absence of any elected representative clearly and openly supporting independence.”
Carney, wey serve as di governor of di Bank of England during Brexit, as di UK dey debate leaving di EU, tok say e don witness di dangers of secessionist movements. E say wetin dey happen for Alberta “be very reminiscent.” “I see first-hand wetin dem sell for dese referenda. Say everything go be easy. Say you fit keep your passport, say you fit keep your currency. Say you fit stay for di kontri and leave am at di same time.” E tok say such arguments dey risk undermine Canada future “right at di time when we dey seen as one of di most trustworthy, reliable desirable kontris to do business with—and we no go mess dat up.”
Stewart, wey don write book on Canadian prime ministers, tok say Carney predecessors wey don deal over di decades with deep provincial frustrations don work to bring dem back into di fold. “Remember say provinces dey sometimes a bit like people, dem want to be seen and dem want to be heard,” e tok. Past PMs don also “talk about wetin make Canada a success, but dem also say how we fit do something better,” e tok. “For a time like dis, you need to be able to sell a vision for Canada,” e add.
Di prime minister don dey make overtures. Carney, wey dem raise for Alberta, don sign deal with di province wey open di door for an oil pipeline to di Pacific—a project wey di oil heartland don long push for. Di deal mark a reset between Alberta and Ottawa, wey don dey at loggerheads over energy policy for decades. For a video address for Tuesday, Carney recall how past energy policies “make Albertans feel like our resources no be our own. And more recently, say our energy contributions dey run against di tide of history. Wetin suppose bring us together begin divide us.” E tok say im goal be “focusing on wetin we fit build together.” For Thursday, di province go formally submit proposal to di Carney government wey dey ask for di “million-barrel-a-day” pipeline project to be fast-tracked.
Despite di divisions, Canadians say dem dey hopeful for a unified future, even though dem hold deep concerns about regional frustrations. A poll by di Angus Reid Institute indicate most Canadians believe e no likely say either Alberta or Quebec go separate. “Most Canadians really feel happy about di kontri, and dey happy to keep working to make am work, and do di bit of compromise wey really be di secret sauce,” Stewart tok. “Compromise and pragmatism don be wetin keep dis kontri together.”
