Naija external reserves don suffer fresh pressure, as e drop by about $850 million within just three weeks. According to recent data wey Central Bank of Nigeria release, reserves fall from $50.03 billion for mid-March reach $49.18 billion by early April. This one don reverse the consistent build-up wey dem dey observe for recent months.
Market operators yarn say the decline na because of many factors. Central Bank FX operations dey take center stage. Efforts to steady naira don make dem dey inject dollars into economy constantly, and this one dey slowly deplete the reserve buffer. At the same time, international investors dey withdraw or repatriate funds because of changes for global interest rates. This one dey increase capital outflows.
The News Chronicle gather say increased government spending wey relate to election cycle don also boost demand for foreign currency. This one dey worsen the nation foreign position for period wey inflows still dey erratic. Analysts claim say deeper structural problems like strong dependence on oil revenues and ongoing import demand continue to expose reserves to volatility.
Although rising crude prices dey offer some support, flows never fully offset growing commitments like debt servicing. Some experts claim say the recent decrease dey within the anticipated range, even though e don drop. Dem yarn say stabilizing reserves over the longer run depend on boosting non-oil exports, raising investor confidence, and maintaining FX changes.
For exchange rate matter, Nigerian Naira trade relatively steady against United States Dollar on Tuesday morning, April 7, 2026. E open at about ₦1,379.30/$1 for Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM), while e maintain similar level for parallel market. For official window, trading begin around ₦1,379.30 per dollar mark, with early session movements show small appreciation compared to last week closing figures.
During morning session, the rate fluctuate between high of ₦1,380.10 and low of ₦1,378.70. This calm performance come after stretch of mild instability wey dem record for late March. That period, interventions by Central Bank of Nigeria and improved interbank liquidity help ease pressure for market.
Financial experts say the current trend reflect more balanced interaction between dollar demand and supply as economic activities for second quarter begin to pick up pace. For parallel market, wey dem commonly refer to as black market, dollar exchange at roughly ₦1,379.10, with buying and selling rates stay close to official window.
The narrow difference between official and unofficial markets continue to point to impact of ongoing exchange rate unification efforts. This one don reduce the arbitrage gaps wey previously dey more pronounced. Traders and investors dey now closely monitor upcoming futures contracts and expected policy signals from Central Bank of Nigeria. These ones likely go influence naira direction for coming weeks.
For now, local currency appear relatively stable. E dey hold firm amid broader global economic pressures and shifting market dynamics.
Meanwhile, separate report by Quartus Economics examine Nigeria economic performance between 2010 and 2025. The report conclude say Nigeria don make steady progress in shifting from oil-driven economy to one supported by non-oil revenue, with substantial increase in tax revenues.
For many years, Nigeria depend heavily on oil exports to fund government spending and earn foreign exchange. This one make country vulnerable to changes in global oil prices. According to report, this structure begin to change after major drop in oil prices for 2014 expose weakness of system.
The report explain say between 2000 and 2014, Nigeria enjoy strong economic growth due to high oil prices. During this period, economy expand at average rate of 6.1 per cent annually, while public debt remain low. However, e note say the growth never build on strong foundation, as key sectors like manufacturing remain weak and infrastructure gaps persist.
Trouble begin for mid-2014 when global oil prices fall sharply from about $110 per barrel to $43.8 by 2016. This one lead to significant drop in government earnings. Oil revenues fall by 41 per cent between 2015 and 2019 compared to previous five years. As result, economic growth slow to average of 1.2 per cent per year.
Impact on Nigerians be severe. The report state say by 2024, income per person don drop sharply, while millions more people fall into poverty. Following this crisis, government begin to focus more on raising revenue through taxes and improving collection systems.
The report describe this as “definitive shift” in Nigeria fiscal structure. E show say for 2010, oil account for nearly 74 per cent of government revenue. By 2024, this one don drop to about 26 per cent. At same time, non-oil revenue increase to nearly 75 per cent, meaning taxes and other sources now provide bulk of government income.
According to report wey dem release for March 2026, one of most notable changes na rise in tax collection. The report state say tax revenue increase significantly from N10.18 trillion for 2022 to N28.29 trillion for 2025. E add say about 86 per cent of this growth come from non-oil sectors of economy.
The report link this improvement to several factors, including changes in tax policies, better enforcement, and wider economic activity outside oil sector. E point to increase in Value Added Tax from 5 per cent to 7.5 per cent and improved administrative measures like centralised revenue collection for oil sector.
E also note say non-oil sector now account for more than 70 per cent of total tax revenue, showing growing level of diversification in economy.
Despite these gains, report raise concerns about rising level of public debt. E explain say Nigeria borrow heavily after 2014 oil crash to support spending and fund infrastructure projects. According to report, country debt-to-GDP ratio rise from about 12 per cent for 2014 to nearly 39 per cent for 2024.
Debt servicing costs don also increase sharply over the years, taking larger share of government revenue. The report state say for 2012, only about 6 per cent of government revenue dey used to service debt, but this figure rise to about 38.5 per cent by 2024. E also note say external debt now make up larger share of total debt, partly due to weakening of naira.
Even with these figures, report say Nigeria debt level still dey within acceptable limits when compared with global standards. However, e warn say country never see strong economic growth to match increase in borrowing.
Another major issue wey dem identify for report na fuel subsidy spending. E describe petrol subsidy as major drain on public finances, noting say government spend about N23.75 trillion on subsidies over 15 years. The report say subsidy costs reach N7.1 trillion for 2024 alone, making am unsustainable for government to continue. E add say removing subsidy na difficult but necessary step to stabilise economy.
Looking ahead, report stress say Nigeria shift to tax-based system come with higher expectations from citizens. As more people and businesses pay taxes, go dey greater demand for transparency and accountability in how public funds dey used.
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