Abuja, Nigeria – E be like say na another gbege full ground for Nigeria power sector as dem dey face serious financial wahala wey fit push di Federal Government liabilities go as high as N6.2 trillion by di end of 2025. This one no be small matter o, especially as premium customers dey waka comot from di national grid. Dem don already owe GenCos about N4 trillion, and new debts don rise to N1.6 trillion as of August 2025; by December, dem dey expect am to reach N2.2 trillion. Na wetin happen be say total liabilities don already reach N5.6 trillion. Na today wahala wey we dey see o!
Siddon look, according to di Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC), di share of commercial customers wey still dey use di grid don drop to 13% from 20%. Dis one na because grid dey vex us with unreliability and costs dey go up. Many manufacturers don spend record N1 trillion on their own self-generation for 2024, while di big boys for house dey run go solar as e no dey cost dem wahala. For 2024, NERC don license 24 bulk consumers to start generating their own power, plus 22 for off-grid projects, wey don add plenty capacity wey dey outside di national grid.
For 2025 alone, states like Jigawa, Zamfara, Lagos, Delta, and Katsina don already sign renewable energy deals. Federal Government dey plan to remove all its agencies from di grid, leaving behind only di households wey no fit use solar and businesses wey no get gas-fired plants. This one dey gidi gidi, because as dem dey waka comot, di government dey face about N200 billion tariff shortfall every month, and e no fit keep di electricity tariff promise wey dem make for us. Di current administration dey struggle to settle di debts wey dey pile for GenCos.
Even di hopes wey we get for promissory notes to pay di GenCos dey hang as Di Debt Management Office (DMO) don only show face with N800 billion for 2025 to cover all Federal Government creditors – including Dangote, state governments, and Julius Berger. Na so dis kochiko dey go. Plus, di 2025 Appropriation law don only allocate N900 billion for electricity subsidies, wey no even fit cover all di arrears and future deficits at di time wey di subsidy burden dey average N2 trillion yearly.
Come August 30, The Guardian request for clear plan on di debt payment from di Director, Press and Public Relations at di Ministry of Finance, Mohammed Danjuma Manga, but e just reply eight minutes later. Next day, dem special adviser on communications to Edun, Dr. Ogho Okiti, contact The Guardian, ask for clarity on di question, but na so di wahala dey. E no respond well; dem remind am couple of times but e just dey give short replies.
As GenCos dey send invoices wey average about N270 billion every month, na only about 27% of dat amount, which na N77.9 billion, dey settle monthly. Dr Joy Ogaji, di Executive Secretary of di Association of Power Generation Companies, urge say GenCos suppose dey involved for di design and implementation of di payment framework to make sure say invoices dey reconcile well, quarterly transparency reviews dey happen, and dem go settle di correct debts for di power wey dem don supply already.
Stakeholders dey gather say di enforcement of NERC’s FGC wey go make all di GenCos control di national grid from collapsing fit cause an additional N1.059 trillion liability. Some operators dey say without an agreement wey go force di government to pay for di full plant capacity (about 7,000 megawatts), di regulations go continue to dey violated. E be like say na wahala upon wahala.
Meanwhile, di Managing Director of Azura Power, Edu Okeke, don talk say di fragility of Nigeria’s grid no be technical issue but na financial wahala. E stress say if di government verify and pay for say, 7,000MW backed by gas supply, di operators go keep di free governor control on. As things dey go, GenCos dey suffer plenty penalties for systemic inefficiencies while DisCos dey cap demand to match remittance. Na so di grid dey head towards collapse!
As di situation dey evolve, di Executive Director of Market Operations, NISO, Dr Edmund Eje, don tell di public say all generators gatz operate on FGC to stabilize di grid as Nigeria wan sync with di West African Power Pool (WAPP). E confirm say di directive dey vital to stabilize di grid frequency wey dey fluctuate due to load variations. E don also talk say di compliance no dey negotiable and everybody gatz take am seriously.
For all di operators wey dey face struggles, Ogaji don raise alarm say di continued grid instability dey put serious technical and financial strain on generating assets. If dem no start to settle di GenCos’ receivables on time, e go dey hard for di sector’s future.
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