Naira Don Hit Overvaluation Level, Dem Say E Fit Fall By 30%

Lagos, Nigeria – Naira don dey waka for breakdown as Reno Capital Africa (RenCap) don yan say e dey overvalued by as much as 30%. This one no be jive, e be serious matter wey dem just drop for front of us.

According to RenCap, this latest analysis land just when naira dey shine like star, with foreign reserves climbing reach $41 billion. E be like say naira don take blood tonic because e don dey flex muscles wey we never see in over a year!

But wetin dis mean? Their report talk say Nigeria dey chop food price deflation for 2025, but headline inflation rate wey dey show face go 20% make sense sometime? Dem dey hint say actual inflation fit dey closer to 12% by October, na so e dey show forehead like person wey just finish intensive facial.

Omo, as National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) dey give us 20% figures, RenCap dey carry their own 12% waka waka. No be say e no fit happen, but who fit believe am when everywhere wey you turn, na price wahala dey full ground?

Dem say all dis na tight monetary policy wahala, stable exchange rate, plus current account surplus wey don create one kind artificial calm around the naira. But e fit trigger naira to fall by 30% as we dey go 2026–2027. Wetin dem go do about am? President Bola Tinubu dey eye re-election for 2027, so dem fit take time before dem go fit cut rate sharply. E be like dem dey play long game.

With investors don take one eye look at African market again – thanks to oil wey dey stabilize for $60–70 per barrel range, e dey obvious say investors don start park their money for local debt wey show attractive face from Nigeria and Ghana. But the story for both countries dey differ well well as dem dey handle their unique market dynamics.

As we dey enter the end of 2025, some traders go tell you say naira dey maintain stability thanks to CBN efforts to stop market wahala and boost dollar inflow. E no easy, but na the reality wey dey ground.