Lagos, Nigeria — As naira dey steady for N1,605 per dollar for first trading day of May 2025, economist Tilewa Adebajo don talk say e suppose dey trade below N1,000 based on wetin dey happen for economy. E reason for this steady price give report wey too shake di FX market.
Adebajo, wey be CEO of CFG Advisory, make dis statement for im report wey dem title, ‘Shouldn’t the Naira Be Trading Below 1,000/$?’. Him talk say improvement for external reserves and oil production fit contribute to better naira strength. Di market don show sign of improvement as di gap between di parallel and official FX market don reduce from over 50 percent in 2022 to under 5 percent for 2025.
<p“FX flows don increase. Since January 2024, di inflow don dey higher than outflow,” Adebajo talk as e dey explain di changes wey dey happen. Him add say average monthly FX turnovers down don reach $8.1 billion for 2025, compared to $5.5 billion wey dem record for 2024.
Adebajo also highlight say Nigeria’s external reserves grow from $30 billion in March 2024 to $40 billion by September. Dis number don dey stable around $38 billion for Q1 of 2025. E point say net reserve position wey drop to $4 billion in 2023 don bounce back to $23.1 billion by di end of 2024.
<p“Di new NNPC leadership don put emphasis on reentry drilling strategies,” Adebajo add. “Dis approach go help improve oil production and cut down costs. Di rig count wey dey go for Nigeria don jump from 18 to 38, and e fit reach 50 by di end of di year,” Adebajo explain as e clarify about di oil production matters.
<p“Di market get capacity to generate between $97 billion and $100 billion every year,” Adebajo noted while e dey talk about trade dynamics. Im mention sey Nigeria’s imports for 2024 be $43 billion, showing sey di market still get room for invisible transactions and informal sector needs, with about $40 billion to $50 billion dey available after dem check di imports.
“Adebajo dey ask, ‘Where dem dey wey go talk say dollar demand dey outnumber supply when CBN don clear dem FX backlog and dem dey account for just 2 percent of FX market turnover?’ E suggest sey we need dey re-evaluate di FX market to see say e suppose support di economy, no be for profit-making,” Adebajo conclude.
Im caution sey speculation and manipulation go still affect di market development and economic growth. “Transparent markets go reduce arbitrage chances; dem no suppose support am,” Adebajo added for di report wey carry weight for economy talk.
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