One big court ruling don dey allow people bet on who go win di US presidential election, and dis one don increase di stakes for di election big time. Since di ruling, millions of dollars don dey flow into betting markets, especially on platforms like Interactive Brokers.
As of Friday, contracts wey predict say Harris go win di election dey trade between 48% and 50% in favor of di Democratic candidate. Dis platform grab di opportunity wey di legal breakthrough create earlier dis month, despite di long regulatory struggle over election betting in di US.
With just one month left before di November 5 election, betting markets open up after one Washington court decide say Kalshi, one startup wey dey try establish political betting in di US for several years, fit accept bets while regulatory appeals against dem still dey ongoing.
In just few days, over $6.3 million don dey wagered on di Harris-Trump contest alone, and people also dey place bets on di outcomes for di House and Senate. On offshore platforms like Polymarket, more than $1.7 billion don dey wagered on di Harris-Trump face-off, where Trump hold slight lead of 54% to 45% over Harris by Friday evening.
Those wey support betting, wey dem call “event contracts,” say it help mitigate risks associated with unfavorable outcomes and compare am to futures contracts. Some believe say these markets fit provide more accurate insights than traditional polls.
However, there be concerns about di potential for widespread election gambling during dis time of heightened polarization and misinformation. CFTC General Counsel Rob Schwartz talk say, “We live in a country where tens of millions believe di last election was stolen,” highlighting di risks of undermining public trust in election integrity.
Judge Patricia Millett allow betting to continue while di legal case against Kalshi move forward, saying di CFTC no provide enough evidence say election contracts go cause harm. So, political betting markets likely stay open through Election Day, which could influence di future of legal gambling in di US.
