Argentina don beat Austria 2-0, and after scoring im fifth goal of di tournament, and after breaking Miroslav Klose record for most goals for World Cup history, Lionel Messi dem ask which goal be im favorite. ‘Honestly, I no remember,’ e talk. ‘I tire.’ And we all tire? Dat na 48 games don finish, number we no dey see until final group stage match for di 32-team era. We still get 24 more games before knockout rounds start. So if you tire and no remember anything, we get you.
Mauricio Pochettino and im USMNT don win both matches, and di team increase dem chances of winning more matches pass anybody else. Dem chance don rise to 84%—by far di biggest increase for any team. Dem most likely opponent for round of 32 na Bosnia-Herzegovina, den Qatar. Gio Reyna be di next Mesut Ozil. Quarterfinal appearance now more likely dan not: 53%, with Belgium slightly more likely dan Egypt to be dem opponent. Only three oda teams get better chance of reaching final eight.
Di Americans be deserved winners for both matches. Pochettino don turn dem into di rare international side wey fit execute coherent high press. Spain, and both Tyler Adams and Malik Tillman rank second and third for individual players. Dem also go ahead wit oh-so-valuable early goals for both matches when opposing players kick ball into dem own goals. Dem theoretical toughest group stage opponent Turkiye don underperform and be unlucky for front of goal—and now dem don eliminate. And di knockout draw dey fall nicely for dem, wit poor Group B opponent and den, at worst, scuffling Belgium side. Di worst-case scenario also dey happen: Christian Pulisic don injure. But dem even dey experience di best-case version: clinch group after two matches and make am so e get full 2½ weeks of rest. Even if e no ready for round of 32, di Americans still go be heavily favored to win against opponent wey be significantly worse dan Paraguay or Australia.
Wetin be di easiest, valuable thing to do for soccer field? Converting penalty kick. For di past five Premier League seasons, 484 penalties don take, and 400 don convert. Add di fact say Messi dey attempt more shots per game dan basically any oda player, and yes, e get di most men’s World Cup goals of all time, currently leading di tournament wit five at 39 years old. To whatever remaining Cristiano Ronaldo stans still dey exist, dem best bet na to get PhD for archaeology and prove say Messi born for anoda planet. E tire too, but e get nothing for common wit anybody else. Unless you move everybody out of di penalty box, tell goalkeeper e no fit move off im line, place ball just 12 yards from goal, and let am kick am whenever and however e want. E be di best scorer, di best creator, di best dribbler, di best off-ball mover, di best walker, and di best passer across modern history of di world’s most popular game. Only one tin Messi bad at, and e be di easiest part of di sport.
If you subscribe to individual game of one-upmanship wey warp di previous era of world soccer, den Kylian Mbappé and Erling Haaland be losers. An elder millennial miss penalty and still get more goals dan both of dem through two World Cup matches. If you subscribe to any oda version of comprehending complex sport wit 11 players wey never get possession of ball for more dan three total minutes across full game, den Mbappé and Haaland don live up to dem billing as di defining players of di current generation. Dem don each score four goals, and dem dey do am how all great goal scorers dey do: by getting plenty great shots. Only Messi don generate more expected goals dan Haaland, and only Messi don attempt more shots dan Mbappé. Next up: Mbappé and Haaland play against each oda, wit first place for Group I on di line.
Canada don already eliminate. But dat make am seem as if dem for don win both matches. No, dem dey chase di game against teams wey don go ahead and stop attacking. Dem dey play teams wey want dem to do exactly wetin dem do: settle for low-probability shots from outside di box. For dem 6-0 victory against Qatar, Canada do sometin wey I never see dem do before. Ehn, win World Cup game? OK, but dem also do anoda tin wey I never see before. Dem generate 97 touches inside di penalty area. I look back through every World Cup game for di 32-or-more-team era, and dat na 26 more penalty area touches dan di next highest on record. Not only dat, dem allow only one opposition touch inside dem own box. Qatar be one of di worst teams we ever see for World Cup. Frankly, dem probably be di worst team to ever appear for World Cup. But even dominating terrible team to never-before-seen degree for tell us sometin positive about Canada quality, right?
As for Mexico, dem no come close to hitting di same heights as di Americans or Canadians. Dem simply just be businesslike. Under Javier Aguirre, Mexico don basically be twice as good as dem two opponents so far: almost exactly twice as many xG created as conceded and exactly twice as many shots and penalty area touches created as conceded. Wit first place already clinch, round-of-32 win go most likely mean fascinating round-of-16 matchup wit England—for di Azteca.
After Brazil and di Netherlands draw dem opening matches, I write about di former managers of Real Madrid and Barcelona: ‘Both coaches put in massive stinkers.’ Well, for di second matches, both managers make smart adjustments. Koeman shift Donyell Malen, one of Europe better goal-scoring wingers dis past season, back out to di wing and bring in Sunderland Brian Brobbey. E be physical center forward wey no create shots for imself—di exact kind of player wey dey go out of style for club game but fit still flourish for simplified international stage. E complete five passes, take two shots. Sweden. For Brazil second match, Ancelotti do di opposite: remove im beefy striker, Brentford Igor Thiago, and replace am wit Manchester United Matheus Cunha, wey be much more of attacking midfielder dan traditional center forward. Dis give Brazil little more control for midfield, and e seem to open up space for Brazil two superstar attackers—dem wingers VinÃcius Júnior and Raphinha—to run into. Oh yeah: and Cunha score two goals of im own. Both Sweden and Haiti be weak defensive teams, so di concerns for Koeman and Ancelotti no don dissipate. But two games in, both teams already make plenty more sense.
While Turkiye impressive-looking statistical profile be artifact of how poorly dem play when dem games be even, dat no be di case wit Ecuador. Di ball simply no don go into di goal. More specifically, e keep smashing against di crossbar and di post. Dem hit di woodwork three times for di opening 1-0 loss to Ivory Coast, and den dem hit di crossbar for di scoreless draw wit Curacao. Coming into di tournament, Caley model give Ecuador 95% chance of making am out of dem group. After di cold streak, e down to 29%. Next up? Germany.
E get to be so weird to be Germany manager Julian Nagelsmann. And I no mean because e skateboard to practice, tink one of im players for wear earpiece during di game so e fit issue tactical commands directly from di sideline, bring at least three shirts wit imself wherever e go, or anything like dat. No, e get to be really strange say arguably di greatest soccer coach for di world dey comment on your team performance for German broadcaster. E no be as if Klopp, wey dey work for Magenta TV dis summer, be some washed up legend from bygone era—e dey coach Liverpool two seasons ago and fit get whatever coaching job e want right now. Before di opening match wit Curacao, Klopp talk say e for prefer to see Deniz Undav, di second-leading scorer for di Bundesliga dis past season, starting over Jamal Musiala, wey break im ankle less dan a year ago and return for Bayern Munich only toward di end of dis past season. Dis cause minor national crisis. How dare television commentator. Klopp quick apologize to Nagelsmann, dem shake hand, and dat supposed to be dat. Den, wit Germany down 1-0 to Ivory Coast for di 67th minute on Saturday, Nagelsmann sub Undav on for Musiala. Undav score twice. Germany win 2-1.
Neither Belgium nor Uruguay for be soccer powers. Di former GDP smaller dan Ireland, while fewer dan four million people dey live for Uruguay. Yet Belgium don recently reach No. 1 for FIFA rankings, and Uruguay don win two World Cups and seemingly qualify for di tournament every time. Both teams get superstar players wey don recently win di Champions League. World Cup despite playing di likes of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Cape Verde. Take Lamine Yamal out of di starting lineup: Spain score zero goals and draw wit wetin supposed to be one of di worst teams for di World Cup. Put Yamal into di starting lineup: Spain go up 3-0 within 25 minutes and dominate so heavily say dem fit sub am out at halftime. Di case for Spain winning di World Cup no be all dat complicated. Di only requirement for am all to work na for Yamal to be on di field.
Despite plenty valid criticisms, such as di ones pose by my colleague Bill Connelly wey dey at di opening draw wit Congo DR, coach Roberto Martinez no go replace Cristiano Ronaldo for Portugal starting lineup. And I no tink di dominant 5-0 win against Uzbekistan really tell us all dat much wey we no already know. Well, e tell us say dis team no be completely broken—wey arise as possibility after di first match. E tell us say Aston Villa Austin MacPhee get buy-in for im set-piece program wit Portugal, and say Uzbekistan, wey now get 11 total touches inside di opposition penalty area through dem first two matches, just no dey very good. Let check back in after di group decider against Colombia on Saturday.
England be awful against Ghana. G—big chunk of wey come from goalmouth ricochet wey fall to di feet of Harry Kane, wey den deposit di ball into di Charles River. Ghana barely attack, though dem be more dangerous dan di shots or xG totals suggest. Somehow dem no be awarded penalty when Esri Konsa suplex Prince Kwabena Adu inside di box. And couple of oda promising possessions no lead to attempts—one of wey be terminate by Jordan Pickford piledrive Adu, wey somehow be call for foul. Ghana generate five dangerous attacks—essentially, possessions wey reach high level of goal-scoring probability—while only conceding six. Despite no even qualifying for di Africa Cup of Nations, dem almost definitely through to di knockouts now. Di result no really mean much for England chances of finishing atop di group. Even draw against Panama fit be enough. And di weakness wey we see fit not really matter for di knockout rounds, where most of dem opponents no go sit as deep as Ghana do. But boy dem sure look like team without any creative passers on di roster. You fit dey tink: ‘E hard not to wonder if at least one of Cole Palmer, Adam Wharton or Trent Alexander-Arnold for don be useful for matches wey England dey struggle to break down set defense.’ And, well, I write dose exact words, back on June 2, before di tournament start. Alexander-Arnold, for particular, fit be di best player for di world for breaking down low blocks like di one Carlos Queiroz just cook up. If England go behind against team like, say, Argentina for di knockout rounds, wetin dem go do?
