One game into di first World Cup Round of 32, we don power rank di remaining 31 teams. Di two main factors be how each team don look, and how far dem fit go based on di bracket path.
I go surprise if one of dis four teams no dey lift di trophy on July 19. Dem be four of di five pre-tournament favorites, so not much don change, though I get new top team.
More than any other team, Argentina don dey control every game. Dem score first to take lead inside first 40 minutes for all three matches and never look back. E dey fair to point out say Argentina opponents weaker pass France, but dat no be Argentina fault. Maybe dem too rely on Lionel Messi, or maybe he just dey lead as Argentina continue to grow into tournament, now facing di easiest path to quarterfinals.
France get legitimate case for top spot, as di third team for last 40 years to win all three group games with goal difference of plus-eight or better. Di other two be 2002 Brazil and 1998 France, both wey win title. When you see France attack for full flight, you expect dem to hang three goals on everyone, as dem do for group stage. My only concern be say di defense no don as stout as Didier Deschamps sides usually be, and di road to meet Spain for semis likely include Germany and either Netherlands or Morocco.
I no go quibble much with Spain for top spot eida. Di ball just no go inside against Cape Verde, resulting for 0-0 draw. Di group finale against Uruguay be odd rock fight wey no concern me much. Spain fit meet Portugal for Round of 16 but go be heavy favorite against any oda team for dat quarter of bracket.
England second half against Croatia be one of di most impressive at tournament, as Thomas Tuchel decide say di best defense na good offense. E be proverbial paddlin, and I ready to move England to my top spot. But den England struggle to break down low block against both Ghana and Panama, and England next opponents go approach game similarly to varying degrees. E no enough to scare me away, but e worth keeping for mind.
If any of dis teams make run to semis or even final, I no go shock, but I view dem as step or two below top four. I like wetin I see from Colombia for all three games. Los Cafeteros dey dominant at times for all three against very different opponents and tactics. More dan four goals go don nice, but Colombia get second-most shots of knockout stage teams, di controlled chaos effective at both ends, and di shot quality allowed be third-lowest among knockout teams. A quarterfinal against Argentina for Kansas City fit be epic, and if dey be first-time winner of dis tournament, Colombia be my pick.
Germany route Curaçao as expected, den coulda/shoulda lose to Ivory Coast before actually lose to Ecuador for meaningless game. So I no sure we learn much, oda dan say I still no know if Germany get di usual high-end talent. Di same thing fit don said about di Germany team wey win 2014 World Cup. Just like dat tournament, Germany fit run into France for second knockout game, and e tough to see Germany hang with France firepower.
Not much don change from my pre-tournament thoughts on Brazil, wey get tremendous individual talent up top, strong pair of center backs and creaky midfield wey no connect di two. Morocco run riot through dat midfield for opening half hour, and any of di teams for Brazil sneaky tough eighth of bracket fit do same. Japan fit pass right through middle; Ivory Coast fit terrorize wings, and Norway fit do bit of both. I no go surprise if Brazil lose to any of dose three teams.
Di Dutch look great for trouncing Sweden and Tunisia by combined 8-1, but di opening 2-2 draw against Japan be different story. Neida team create much, but di score be padded by excellent finishing. Oda wise, dem go don more questions about how Netherlands go fare against comparable team. Di Dutch get very difficult Round-of-32 game against Morocco but favorable potential matchup with Canada for Round of 16, before likely run into France or Germany.
I rank Portugal ninth, and for retrospect I no exactly sure why. I suppose e be say di midfield still fit be tournament best with Bruno Fernandes attacking and Vitinha anchoring. Di talent dey obviously, but Portugal largely outplayed by Colombia and look stunningly inert against Congo DR. Dey be real chance say Croatia fit stifle Portugal similarly for Round of 32, and even if dat no happen, Spain dey loom for next round. Oh, and dey still be di Cristiano Ronaldo problem, even afta he score twice for di 5-0 win over Uzbekistan wey no teach us anything.
Yes, I dey home di United States into top ten. Dis should probably be Norway or Morocco. But as Alexi Lalas talk, if you no like my list, make your own list. Here be di case for United States: For di two group games wey matter, di Americans dominate Paraguay and Australia as good team should. If dose same performances don turned in by Germany or Argentina, nobody go don blink.
Erling Haaland don do Erling Haaland things thus far, scoring twice for each group game he play, a 4-1 romp over Iraq and hard-fought 3-2 win over Senegal. Without Haaland and Martin Ødegaard, Norway still play France respectably, and only Ousmane Dembélé wey find God mode flatter di favorites. Norway go probably be couple spots higher if no be say dem get tough path through Ivory Coast and den Brazil or Japan. Plus questions remain about how dis Norway squad go handle dem first major-tournament knockout stage.
Morocco outplay Brazil for large swaths of opener and easily fit don win dat game. E tough to take much from matches against Scotland and Haiti, so I dey excited to see wetin Morocco fit do versus Netherlands. Whichever team fit better exploit di space behind di oda attacking right back fit win dat game, with Canada dey wait for Round of 16. I no go surprise if Morocco get back to quarterfinals to battle France again.
Nothing for group stage dissuade me from my love for dis Japan team, wey concede di second-fewest shots and sixth-fewest expected goals among advancing teams. Japan take good shots and give up bad ones from defensive perspective. Even without injured stars, Japan fit hang with any team at tournament. Japan fit also exploit Brazil aforementioned weak spots with pressure, passing and quick strikes. Samurai Blue beat Brazil for October, and I tink repeat very much be possibility.
Mexico quietly go through World Cup group games without conceding goal. Di bad news be say Mexico get single World Cup knockout-stage win. Di good news be say e be at Estadio Azteca, site of Tuesday Ecuador match and potential Round-of-16 match. Di dream Round-of-16 match be against England at Azteca 40 years afta Diego Maradona score two of di most famous goals ever against England for 1986 World Cup quarterfinals. I no know how England go handle dat cauldron of stadium, but I desperately hope to find out.
Dis tier primarily feature good teams wey get tough draws, meaning two surprising results go likely be necessary to make quarterfinals. As much as I like to write off dis team more, Jeremy Doku and di thirty-somethings no go quite let me. Dem rise to occasion for group finale, beating New Zealand 5-1 behind four goals from players aged 31 and over. Belgium fire off 73 shots for first three games, di most by any team for World Cup group stage since Ivory Coast for 2006. I doubt di Red Devils go get as many opportunities against Senegal for Wednesday, but di sun no don fully set on dis golden generation yet.
Di Lions of Teranga go toe-to-toe with France for half, den no be much worse dan Norway, so maybe I dey underrate dem as dem line up against anoda European foe wey be step down. Senegal fit strike on di counter as quickly as anyone, and Ismaila Sarr don be one of di tournament best attackers. Senegal get di experience and talent to pull couple upsets.
Yan Diomande dey have im moment, showing say he no be just pacy winger. He fit also play on di ball, leading Ivory Coast for touches as he rank for group stage top five for chances created and successful one-v-ones. He and di Ivorians fit certainly scare Norway and di Brazil-Japan winner, but dat be tough couple matches for team for im first World Cup knockout stage.
Dis Ecuadorian defense get di potential to frustrate Mexico, and Ecuador dey used to play for elevated hostile environments. But di offensive questions remain. Dem draw scoreless against Curaçao, so e hard to see La Tri get more dan one goal at Azteca while also keeping Mexico off scoresheet. I love to see Ecuador get past Mexico and frustrate England, but I no dey optimistic about am.
Winning Group B earn Switzerland favorable matchup with Algeria for Round of 32, so di Swiss should finally win World Cup elimination game for first time since 1938. E be cliche but true: steady Switzerland fit trouble almost anyone but no get di ceiling of potential Round-of-16 opponent Colombia.
Di Canadians go be lower if dem no don already beat South Africa on Stephen Eustaquio stoppage-time winner. E still hard to see dem troubling di Netherlands-Morocco winner, afta no create plenty against eida Switzerland or Bosnia and Herzegovina. E unfortunate Canada no win Group B to get one or two knockout games at home for Vancouver. Playing for di hot, supportive environment of BC Place fit don mean different story for Canada.
Maybe Croatia should be dozen spots higher just because e be Croatia, team wey should probably never be counted out early. Dis be di latest last stand for 40-year-old Luka Modric and im relatively elderly teammates, and dem no seem to get di literal or metaphorical legs to make run afta grinding out wins over Panama and Ghana. Di far more talented Portugal and potentially Spain dey wait, so dat surely be di end of Cinderella story for dis Croatian generation. Right?
Dat pretty self-explanatory, right? Di only one of dis teams wey dey favored for Round of 32, Egypt obviously get tremendous opportunity against low-powered Australia side. Di Pharaohs go get to deal with Australia physical and mental games, and dem go want keeper Mostafa Shobeir to continue im hot shot-stopping, but dem dey poised to get dem first-ever World Cup knockout stage win before meeting Argentina.
Di Socceroos go also dey thrilled with dem knockout stage draw. Egypt dey better, but no by much, and no get di high ceiling oda potential opponents get. Australia go do wetin dem do and muck up di game, looking to steal goal and win, or just get to penalties. Afta di thrilling closing moments against Austria for group finale, I go believe anything dey possible for dis Algeria side. Maybe di engendered belief fit fire dem past consistent Switzerland side before running into Colombia.
E hard to judge team wey so precisely meet expectations for group stage, losing to Argentina and handling Jordan before drawing comparable Austria side. I no dey say Congo go pull upset, but I fit easily see di game be scoreless for hour before England finally break through. Speaking of frustrating low blocks, Carlos Queiroz dey here! I like di way Ghana battle England and Croatia, but I no like di matchup with Colombia, wey get plenty dynamic playmakers wey fit slice through Ghana defense. Antoine Semenyo no go enough to counter Colombia waves of attackers.
Like Algeria, Austria also don precisely meet expectations so far, easing by Jordan and losing to Argentina before di chaotic draw for group finale. Di Austrians be dis low simply because of di matchup with Spain, wey still dey third gear but still one of di best teams at tournament. I hope I no dey jinx di United States by putting Bosnia and Herzegovina dis low. I just no see di upside for dis team, wey score five goals for group stage but near di bottom for multiple attacking categories. Among di 32 teams wey advance, Bosnia and Herzegovina rank 31st for both expected goals and shots quality, and for di bottom four for shot distance and percentage of shots inside penalty area.
Nothing I don see from Sweden make me tink di defense dey any better dan e be for qualifying, when Sweden be last for di group but find Nations League backdoor to World Cup. For oda words, Sweden give up di second-best shots among teams wey advance, and I don hear say France get some pretty good attackers. Even stripping out Paraguay down-a-man second half against Türkiye, di numbers dey bad, putting Paraguay for di bottom four of knockout teams for just about every offensive metric. Maybe dem fit frustrate Germany enough to hang around while, or maybe Germany get dis game for hand by halftime.
If Cape Verde get to halftime level with Argentina, dat go be like one of di 1-vs-16 NCAA tournament games wey thrill for while, den usually end with top seed winning by 20. Unless Vozinha turn out to be Messi kryptonite, dat probably how dis game go for di most optimistic scenario. South Africa group-finale upset of South Korea be great moment, but Bafana Bafana seem to run out of gas against Canada, and di late goal conceded be cruel but just for di overall scheme of di game.
