Historically speaking, the winner of Game 5 for best-of-seven series wey dey tied 2-2 don go on to win the matchup 82% of the time. So Tuesday night Spurs vs Thunder match na big big game.
If OKC go protect home court, where the Thunder don lose only one game for these playoffs (Game 1 to San Antonio), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander go probably need to show why he be MVP.
But e no be say SGA don shine for this series. He dey average less than 25 points per game, down from 31 for regular season. Worse be say him shooting percentage na 39%, including 26% for three-point. For Game 4 wey OKC lose, him score only 19 points.
The Spurs change their defensive strategy for Game 4. Instead of double-teaming SGA all over the court, dem let their players cover am more straight up. E work because the shooters wey dem ignore for first three games (because dem send many defenders to SGA) no longer get wide open looks. Production fall off sharply.
Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, Jaylin Williams and Jared McCain, wey combine for 68 points and 12 three-pointers for Game 3, score only 12 points on two three-pointers for Game 4. Caruso, wey hit 14 threes at 61% clip through first three games by himself, no score any point.
The plan to shut off ancillary scoring and cover the back-to-back MVP with single defender (at least until e drive inside the three-point line, where the Spurs still dey help down aggressively) mean say SGA supposed to kill that coverage. But e no happen.
So you fit bet say the Spurs go play am the same way for Game 5. At least until e start to cook. So that na wetin e need to do. Especially because Ajay Mitchell don already dey ruled out for Game 5, and Jalen Williams dey questionable.
Mitchell and Williams na OKC only true one-on-one scorers outside SGA. Dem provide viable third option for half-court offense if the shooters no dey shoot and Gilgeous-Alexander no dey dominate. If Williams no fit play, Gilgeous-Alexander really must play huge.
Even if Williams fit play, how much you fit rely on somebody wey don dey banged up for most of the season against this kind of San Antonio defense and start creating consistent solo buckets?
Bottom line: Time don come for SGA to be the MVP. No be say e no don worthy of that award for these playoffs, or even for this series. E don. Again, e be the reason all those shooters wey mention, none of who dey even remotely capable of creating postseason offense for themselves, don produce at outlier rate.
That na wetin MVPs dey do. Dem dey draw all the attention. Sometimes dem still score 35, but even when their box scores no dey jump off the page, their impact dey all over.
Stephen Curry get absolutely robbed of Finals MVP in 2015 by voters wey apparently no understand this dynamic and just decide say Andre Iguodala na more important player for that series because e score more than e usually do. All na create by Curry, wey still be leading scorer for the team by wide margin.
All of which to say, this no be indictment for any way on SGA MVP status. E just be say the Spurs don flip the equation by the way dem defend am for Game 4, and e must flip am back.
The only way San Antonio go even consider to go back to trapping am with multiple defenders and open back up all OKC shooters na if SGA punish their single coverage to meaningful degree enough so dem no get choice. Until then, why dem go back to leave Caruso and company open?
OKC don prove say e fit beat that formula. Now e dey on SGA to prove say e, and by extension the Thunder, fit beat the new one. And e no go easy.
San Antonio get elite perimeter defenders wey dey extremely physical with Gilgeous-Alexander and, for most part, dey prove say dem fit stay in front of am one-on-one. We dey talk about Stephon Castle and Devin Vassell and Dylan Harper, specifically. Even De’Aaron Fox don hold up reasonably well for switches.
And behind all of dem na the greatest paint protector for history, Victor Wembanyama, wey allow dem to pressure even harder knowing say dem get cover if dem get beat.
E beg the question why San Antonio feel say dem need to double team SGA so far out for the court for first place. That just show you the respect opposing coaches get for am. Even when dem get elite defenders at their disposal, dem no think any single one of dem fit handle the MVP.
For this way, maybe e be the Spurs wey dey prove something to themselves for real time. Say dem no need to abandon traditional defensive principles and totally sell out to contain even arguably the best scorer for the world.
My guess na say dem still dey scared of Gilgeous-Alexander eventually burning dem, and dem suppose be. For the end, e no don win back-to-back MVPs and average north of 30 PPG for each of the past four seasons by being easily solved.
The Spurs make their move. E work for Game 4. E fit work for Game 5 and for the rest of this series? That na question only SGA fit answer.
