Arsenal don lose their nine-point lead for Premier League table, and now dem dey level with Manchester City for points and goal difference, with only five matches remaining.
After City beat Arsenal last weekend and later defeat Burnley, the two teams don tie for top spot, and bookies dey see City as the favorite to win the title. DraftKings odds give Pep Guardiola side 58% chance to chase down Mikel Arteta team for third time in four years.
The power rankings model don already hint at this development last month, when City jump over Arsenal. The model pick up on changes for each team style of play, and those changes don bear out over the past month.
City increased pressing intensity and add valuable players like Marc Guéhi and Antoine Semenyo, and their performances eventually catch up. Across the whole season, Arsenal play at higher level than City, with better underlying numbers, but recent performance favour City.
Since February, City nearly lap the rest of the league for per-game expected goals differential. Guardiola teams always round into form every spring, and this season no different.
Kai Havertz performance against Manchester City show what good striker play look like. He press goalkeeper, score goal, make runs off centerbacks, and constantly pressure center of box. If Havertz finish off his chances, Arsenal for still be title favorites.
But injuries to Havertz, Martin Odegaard, Bukayo Saka, and Jurriën Timber be main reason why Arsenal let lead slip away. The expensive summer spending spree of €280 million no really move the needle for Arsenal.
Arsenal still dey fight for title, but their buildup play don deteriorate over past couple months. The return of Odegaard and Havertz fit fix the problems.
For other teams, Tottenham finally get win after 118 days, beating Wolves 1-0. Joao Palhinna late goal give them first Premier League victory since December. But dem still dey 18th, two points from safety with four games to go.
Antonin Kinsky make crucial save for Spurs, and Roberto De Zerbi say the win fit change something for their mentality. But injuries to Dominic Solanke and Xavi Simons be new concern.
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