Premier League don return after three weeks international break, and top tipster Lewis Jones, wey dem dey call Jones Knows, don release him analysis and betting insight for di weekend games. E talk say three weeks na long time for football, and dis international break wey nations play up to four matches fit get huge effect on di Premier League return.
According to Jones, fatigue, injuries, travel and late returns, plus teams still dey develop tactical identity early for season, go influence matters pass wetin betting markets dey show. E yan say first half na di period wey dey most vulnerable to disruption after di break.
Di numbers from last five seasons for Championship and Premier League show say first-half goals per game drop by 0.3 after di first international break. First-half goal averages bin dey 1.22 but fall to 0.92 for di first matchday after di break. For Premier League alone, di average na just 0.82 goals per first half. Half-time 0-0 chances also increase, with 50 per cent of matches for dat five-year sample seeing no goals before break. Normal average for 0-0 at half-time na 27 per cent. Leeds only concede two first-half goals in dia last 20 matches across all competitions, with 11 of those games seeing 0-0 at break.
Jones also talk about Brentford and Aston Villa. E say e get love for Brentford, but ranking dem above Unai Emery side for Villa Park na dangerous game. Di market still look cold on Villa, but e think dia rebuild dey quietly come together. Johan Manzambi, Zion Suzuki and Nicolas Jackson all shine in di win at Tottenham. Despite many new faces, Villa show encouraging cohesion. Emery dey unbeaten in him last 10 matches with Villa, winning six.
For Bournemouth, di loss of Alex Scott go make dem less effective. Scott out for six weeks with tendon issue. Bournemouth play four times without Scott for Premier League since start of last season and fail to win all four, including 1-1 draw with Burnley at home. Chelsea dey 7/10 for victory, but Jones talk say best way na to add goals. All five Chelsea games don go over 2.5 goals with average 4.4 per game, while both teams to score land in 13 of Bournemouth last 17 away games.
Time don come to roll Leif Davis dice again, according to Jones. Davis dey play as aggressive left-back in Gary O’Neil 4-2-3-1 and don become one of Ipswich principal attacking outlets. Him attacking position mean say e dey function as another winger when Ipswich get sustained possession. In him last four starts, Davis get six shots, three on target and score twice.
Brighton vs Sunderland also get talk. Jones say betting markets love Brighton, perhaps too much. Injury news around Sunderland get hint of overreaction when you look price on home win at 2/1. Yes, Brian Brobbey and Dan Ballard na big players for Black Cats, but team build more on system and functionality. Sunderland no be hopelessly open newly-promoted side. Since promotion, dem lose just five times in 24 home matches and concede less than goal per game for dat sample. Draw no bet line at 11/10 make sense.
Manchester United running stats dey become issue. For dia last game at Fulham, United bin outrun by 6.5km, second most a team don outrun by opponent for Premier League match dis season. Dis season United rank bottom five for distance covered, bottom four for sprints and bottom for high-speed runs. If United fail to win, na dia worst start to league season for 40 years. Market expect home success at 4/6, but Jones talk say badge dey skew true price, so Spurs double chance at 6/5 na play.
Oliver Glasner face Crystal Palace for first time since leaving at end of last season. Forest vs Palace fixture don become more Vindaloo than Korma on spice chart based on recent meetings. Forest pinch Palace greatest ever manager, and rivalry dey grow after Forest replace Palace for Europa League due to multi-club ownership rules. Goals don dey scarce in recent meetings, all four go under 2.5 goals, but cards dey flow with average seven cards per game and all five go over 4.5 cards line.
Hull and Everton angle: centre-backs dey average being fouled once a game against Hull due to Oli McBurnie all-action style and direct play. Hull 21 per cent long-pass rate na highest for league, and dem rank lowest for possession and build-up attacks. McBurnie compete in most aerial duels of any Premier League player dis season with 57. So opposition centre-back being fouled should continue. Jarrad Branthwaite don be fouled three times in him last two games and go battle McBurnie regularly.
Anfield go exceptionally hostile following news say Man City found guilty of serious financial-rule breaches across nine seasons by independent Premier League Commission. City appeal di sanction, so sporting consequences never settle. Jones talk say from betting perspective, little evidence say verdict destabilise playing group. Pep Guardiola publicly back di club and tell supporters say dem go get through together. Erling Haaland also speak about situation, call for positivity. Liverpool team far from finished article and injury issues hit dem over international break. City top Premier League, and siege mentality fit win out.
Coventry na only team to play top three for Premier League, lose 8-0 on aggregate for those matches. Frank Lampard team go look to exploit set pieces, where Bobby Thomas bring massive threat. Centre-back get 10 shots in five games, while Newcastle ship 31 shots from set pieces already dis season, most of any team. Thomas score three goals for Coventry in promotion season and fit land for anytime goalscorer backers at 8/1.
Arsenal don receive warning say dem fit dey at disadvantage as dem face Leeds for Premier League weekend. After three long weeks international football, Premier League reconvene, and Gunners return against Daniel Farke Leeds for early kick-off on Saturday. Ex-Arsenal forward Paul Merson talk on Sky Sports News say dat fit be more curse than blessing. E concern say Gunners fit struggle to get up to speed because 15 members of Mikel Arteta squad bin dey international duty until dis week. E believe dat fact go give Leeds leg up at Emirates and help close gap between two sides.
Merson talk say many Arsenal players go away for international break. Dem probably come back yesterday, do small warm-up, so dem literally get today and small tomorrow, run through set-plays and patterns, then kick off at 12:30pm on Saturday. According to Merson, no plenty time, and e think na leveller for Leeds, small advantage for Leeds say dem dey play straight after international break at 12:30pm.
Leeds also get healthy number of players on international duty, with 21 players jet off to represent dia nations, including England James Trafford. Farke squad also hit by injuries, with Dan James and Joe Rodon set to miss trip to north London. Arsenal dey hope to get Declan Rice, Ezri Konsa, Cristhian Mosquera, Piero Hincapie and Ben White back. Gunners need win after Brighton give dem 3-0 humbling last time out.
