My name na Ioannis Canteiro. I be student of Data Science and AI, and I create DataFutebol, one of di biggest profiles wey dey do football statistics. I dey turn numbers and data into analysis and opinion about di game, always looking for simple way to explain wetin dey behind statistics.
For two seasons, Gabriel Barbosa see one narrative wey look like e go permanent: Gabigol don finish. Goals reduce, protagonism disappear, and di striker move from Flamengo idol to player wey no dey start regularly. Im time for Cruzeiro in 2025 also no bring back im old status.
But di numbers for 2026 tell anoda story. Back for Santos, Gabigol don score 23 goals and give 10 assists for 43 matches. Na 33 direct goal participations, performance wey put am among di top three players for Brazilian football for dis indicator, alongside Flaco López of Palmeiras and Pedro of Flamengo. More important: im productivity per minute don return close to im best career moments.
Di question be whether Gabigol really stop to be high-level player, or people just judge am with di extraordinary standard wey im set by imself. Few players build such decisive trajectory for Brazilian football dis century like Gabriel Barbosa. Na di greatest Brazilian scorer for Libertadores history, member of top five scorers for Campeonato Brasileiro, and protagonist of historic titles for Flamengo. Im accumulate numbers wey few strikers reach.
Na dat history make im fall so clear. Di 2023 and 2024 seasons rank among im worst career seasons for direct goal participations, if you no count im first year as professional. Even so, for 2024, e still decisive for Copa do Brasil win, scoring two times for first final match against Atlético-MG. Di problem na di gap between di Gabigol of those years and di player wey dominate Brazilian football between 2019 and 2021.
First change show for time on pitch. For 2024, im last season for Flamengo, Gabigol play average less than 40 minutes per match. Na im lowest since 2017, when e get small opportunities for Europe. For Cruzeiro, for 2025, di average rise to about 47 minutes, still far from im best years. For 2026, for Santos, e start to play more than 70 minutes per match, level wey e never reach since 2023. E return as starter, offensive reference, and central piece of di team.
But e go be error to say im recovery come only because e dey play more minutes. For 2023, when e still play about 70 minutes per match, Gabigol already show drop for productivity: 0.447 goal and 0.089 assist per 90 minutes. Meaning e produce less even when e get time for pitch. Di 2026 recovery no just be consequence of playing more. Gabigol also return to play better.
To compare players with different time for pitch, one useful tool na to look production per 90 minutes. For 2026, Gabriel register 0.65 goal per 90 minutes, above im historical average wey near 0.56. Na im best since 2021 and fourth highest for im career, behind only 2019, 2020, and 2021, im most dominant period for Flamengo. When we add assists, di recovery dey even more clear. Gabigol reach 0.941 direct goal participation per 90 minutes for 2026. Only di 2019 to 2021 trio show better results. Between 2022 and 2024, di index swing between 0.53 and 0.62. For Cruzeiro, even without becoming main man, Gabriel register about 0.67 goal participation per 90 minutes. Na relevant average, but e no translate to protagonism for decisive moments. Di difference for 2026 na combination of high productivity and constant presence for pitch.
Anoda aspect of di recovery na assists. For 2026, Gabriel register 0.285 assist per 90 minutes, second best index for im career, behind only 2020 when e reach 0.368. E be about double im historical average. For di four previous seasons, e never pass 0.16 assist per 90 minutes. Di striker no just dey finish better. E also return to participate directly for di construction of goals.
One possible explanation dey for im function inside pitch. With Pedro’s consolidation for Flamengo, Gabigol need adapt im positioning. Di duo be fundamental for Libertadores 2022, but di presence of anoda center forward change im offensive responsibilities. For Cruzeiro, Gabriel also share attack with Kaio Jorge. Now, for Santos, e return to act as main central reference, di function e do during im peak for Flamengo. Dis change fit help explain di assist recovery. Gabigol dey move, participate for offensive combinations, and find teammates wey dey condition to finish.
Di numbers for Campeonato Brasileiro reinforce di recovery. Gabigol appear among di three players with biggest positive difference between goals scored and expected goals, indicator known as Gols − xG. Di xG, or expected goals, estimate probability say one finish go end for goal, considering characteristics of di opportunity like distance and angle. Di difference between goals scored and expected total help identify who dey convert chances above or below statistical expectation. Gabigol get positive balance of 3.37 goals above expected. E dey behind only Danilo of Botafogo (+6.12) and Luciano Juba of Bahia (+4.06), and e dey ahead of Flaco López of Palmeiras (+2.66).
Di striker also register 0.80 goal per 90 minutes for Brasileirão, performance wey put am for 96th percentile among strikers wey dem analyse. Dis mean say im goal average pass about 96% of players for di comparison group. But one interesting contrast dey. Gabigol appear only for 53rd percentile for shots on target per 90 minutes, with average of 0.92. Meaning e no dey stand out by number of correct shots. Im difference dey for ability to turn opportunities into goals.
Di shot map of Gabigol help show dis efficiency. Plenty of im goals appear for di lower part of di goal, near di posts, areas wey require goalkeepers to move well. Anoda number catch attention: according to di survey, 13 out of 15 shots on target end for goal. Dat na conversion of about 87% of accurate shots, one exceptional rate. E important to separate dis rate from conversion over all finishes, wey also consider shots wey go outside and shots wey dem block. Indicators wey high like dis fit vary as number of opportunities increase. Still, di data show one striker wey dey use im chances with huge efficiency.
