As United States midterm elections dey near, President Donald Trump don try push blame for high fuel prices away from US–Israel war on Iran, and point am to Democrats and Ukraine attacks on Russian refineries.
For one Truth Social post on Monday, Trump talk say wetin dey drive gasoline no be Strait of Hormuz again, because record numbers of barrels dey come out now almost every day. He say the word na “Refineries,” where Russia own dey blow up by Ukraine, and where US own dey close for Blue States like California by Democrats.
UNN report say US President Donald Trump once again state say Ukraine strikes on Russian oil refineries na reason for rising gasoline prices for United States, citing social media post by American leader. Trump ask Zelenskyy make e slow down strikes on Russian oil refineries due to threat of global fuel crisis. Trump believe say Ukraine to blame for rise in diesel fuel prices for United States.
But Trump claim say domestic refinery closures dey drive spike, daily exports through Strait of Hormuz don actually plunge 97 percent since war begin, and e dey choke global supplies. Petrol prices dey continue to climb for consumers. Average price for one gallon (3.79 litres) na $4.36, up from $4.14 one month ago and up from $2.98 on February 28, when US and Israel first strike Iran, according to American Automobile Association, AAA, wey dey track daily petrol prices.
“The ongoing conflicts with Iran and Russia’s war with Ukraine are reinforcing each other, impairing oil product markets, but Middle Eastern flows are far from normal,” Rachel Ziemba, senior adjunct fellow at Center for a New American Security, tell Al Jazeera.
On Friday, G7 countries agree to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves amid pressure from White House. Meanwhile, US Strategic Petroleum Reserve don hit lowest level since 1982.
“US tells some European Union members to release ‘strategic reserves’ or face a potential US diesel export ban, pushing France and Germany to do so, oil prices, along with gasoline and diesel futures strongly lower as a result,” Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, talk for post on X.
Ukraine attacks on Russia energy infrastructure also push prices up, especially diesel fuel. On Sunday, Ukraine Ministry of Defence claim say e don disable more than half of Russia oil refining capacity.
“The damage to Russia’s refineries – and risk of more US sanctions on those who process Russian oil – are exacerbating the situation, but the underlying issue is still the volatile flows from the Middle East, the greater difficulty getting oil products out and the lower buffers in place,” Ziemba add.
Latest strikes come amid ongoing attacks since war between Russia and Ukraine begin in 2022. In June, Russian refinery throughput hit lowest level in two decades, according to analysis by International Energy Agency, IEA. The analysis also find say diesel production don fall 30 percent over past 18 months.
Trump also blame price increases on refining cuts for Democratic-led states like California, where two refineries shut down over past year. The closures reduce state refining capacity by 17 percent, create some supply gaps, according to analysis by S&P Global.
But Trump effort to shift blame to Democrats come ahead of consequential midterm elections wey fit shape balance of power for Washington. At same time, most Americans appear to blame Trump for rising prices. Recent AP-NORC poll find say 65 percent of Americans blame Trump policies for higher prices, while 61 percent say US economy worse off than when Trump return to office.
For one market note, Newsquawk talk say comments like this one attribute gasoline rally to product side rather than crude side, and that distinction matter for how episode dey trade. Refinery outages and capacity closures dey show for crack spread, RBOB-WTI differential, and backwardation in products rather than flat-price crude; crude-only shocks dey behave opposite, dey widen crude while cracks stay contained. Strikes on Russian refining capacity in past episodes tighten global diesel and product balances and shift flows toward Atlantic Basin suppliers, slow-moving channel wey dey play out through export volumes and freight rather than single sessions. Political attribution here notable but follow established form: sitting US administrations historically blame refining capacity and regulation for pump prices during tight product markets, which often precede pressure on refiners, talk of export restrictions, or strategic stock releases rather than any immediate supply response. The tell worth watching na whether cracks and time spreads corroborate refinery narrative or whether crude dey move on im own, and whether any policy follow-on targets product exports or state-level rules. As statement rather than action, this carry no direct supply implication; its weight lies for whether e foreshadows measures aimed at products market.
