Once dem sabi am as ogbologbo of Nigerian politics, but now Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) don reach point where e dey shake for cliff. Question wey dey hang over campaign for January general election, wey officially start this week, na whether PDP fit survive.
Court battle don begin over factional struggle, and e fit render PDP irrelevant for ballot box. Na serious fall for party wey dem found for 1998, and wey look like anything fit touch am after military rule end for 1999. In 2008, chairman of party boast say PDP go rule Nigeria for sixty years. But now different story.
For 16 years, PDP control presidency through Olusegun Obasanjo, Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, and Goodluck Jonathan. Dem also control majority of 36 states for Nigeria. But 2015 federal election come shock am. PDP lose presidential vote to Muhammadu Buhari and newly formed All Progressives Congress (APC), coalition wey include opposition parties and disgruntled former members.
When PDP enter political wilderness, leaders for party no know wetin to do. Dem bin dey familiar with federal power, but opposition na new challenge. Political analyst Ishaq Buhari bin tell BBC say na beginning of end. “Dem be party wey so used to power. Being in opposition na challenge dem struggle with from start,” e talk.
If 2015 be major blow, 2025 na year wey foundations of party remain for ruins. Wave of defections and bitter internal conflicts shake PDP. Some state governors change allegiance, and e affect party well well. At start of that year, PDP still hold eight states. But by December, five governors from Delta, Akwa Ibom, Enugu, Bayelsa, and Rivers cross over to APC. Dem cite say PDP no longer dey viable and say dem want better cooperation with federal government.
Early this year, PDP hold three states. But now, e don reduce to zero. Oyo governorship slip from party hands last month.
Internal power struggles, factionalism, insistence say power must rotate through regions, and disciplinary measures all add to disillusionment inside party. PDP don lose high-profile figures, including former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar last year.
Crisis intensify because of leadership tussle. For November 2025, one faction wey observers say represent majority of members hold national convention for Ibadan, Oyo state, despite court orders. Convention expel Nyesom Wike, prominent PDP member wey dey serve inside President Bola Tinubu APC-led government.
Wike, who help found PDP, head another faction. This create political stand-off wey don paralyse party. E bin controversially help APC win Rivers state for last presidential election, and some accuse am say e betray PDP. But for law eyes, faction wey Wike head na legitimate party. So that faction fit submit presidential and parliamentary candidates to electoral commission. Rival faction no get anybody for ballot.
Despite chaos, some die-hard loyalists still get hope. Politician and PDP member Aminu Adamu, wey dey anti-Wike faction, believe party fit return to former glory. E cite Thailand and Argentina, where parties bounce back after years for wilderness. “We don see am happen before. All we need do na to put our house in order and start to build from there. If we make all necessary corrections, by 2032 I really think PDP fit be major force again.”
Others talk say party still get grassroots network wey important for election. Offices, activists, supporters, and local leaders still dey. But by 2032, e fit don too late. With party for disarray and candidates wey Wike back for ballot, voters unlikely to trust dem.
Analyst Deji Olarenwaju believe only thing wey fit save PDP na alliance with African Democratic Congress, wey dem now see as biggest opposition group, or Peter Obi Nigeria Democratic Congress. “Because on their own dem dey go nowhere,” e talk.
