Gold market don face wahala o. Commerzbank, one big German bank, don downgrade im gold price forecast two times for two months. Na Thu Lan Nguyen, dia commodity analyst, drop the news. According to dia new report, gold go end year around $4,500 per ounce, down from $4,800 wey dem talk for June. Silver no escape – dem cut am to $67 from $80.
Why dis downgrade happen? Nguyen say na because inflation still dey high, so Federal Reserve dey force to keep tight monetary policy. But she add say market expectations don too aggressive, so gold get room to recover small by end of year. She still talk say gold fit still reach $5,000 for 2027 if inflation cool down.
But di biggest factor wey dey hold gold back na war with Iran. Nguyen explain say di conflict for Middle East dey overshadow all di good things wey don push gold to record high for early year. She talk say because US na energy exporter, dem dey benefit from energy crisis, and dollar don become safer than euro again. As long as dis dey happen, gold no go benefit from demand for safe haven.
Nguyen point out say even though near-term inflation dey rise, long-term expectations still stable. So Federal Reserve no go likely adopt aggressive monetary policy wey fit change gold’s long-term bullish outlook. She talk say “we expect Fed rate hike expectations to be excessive; we think Fed go keep rates unchanged till end of year. Dem go only raise if inflation force dem.”
For long-term, Nguyen say di correction don damage market sentiment, but structural drivers wey fuel gold rally earlier still dey. Central banks don start to buy gold more because Russia‘s foreign exchange reserves get frozen. And mounting government debt for advanced economies dey make sovereign bonds less safe, so gold dey shine as asset wey no get default risk.
