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World oil demand growth in 2021 is 5.7 mb/d – OPEC



World oil demand growth in 2021 is 5.7 mb/d – OPEC

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) says that global oil demand growth in 2021 is now 5.7 mb / d.

According to OPEC, this reflects slower-than-expected demand from China and India in the third quarter of 2021 (3Q21).

OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo revealed this on Wednesday in his comment on OPEC video conference 182.

Barkindo noted that world oil demand was estimated to reach 96.4 mb / d in 2021, while total world demand in 2022 was estimated at 100.6 mb / d, about 0.56 mb / d above. from 2019 levels.

“The supply of liquids outside OPEC is expected to grow by 0.7 mb / d in 2021, to an average of 63.6 mb / d.

“The main growth engines for 2021 are Canada, Russia, China, Norway, Brazil and Guyana.

“The forecast for the growth of the supply of liquids outside OPEC in 2022 is 3.0 mb / d, at an average of 66.7 mb / d. Russia and the United States contribute with increases of 1.0 mb / d and 0.9 mb / d, respectively.

“In terms of stocks, the commercial stocks of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) stand at 2,773 mb, 174 mb below the 2015-2019 average, with crude representing 148 mb and products 26 mb of this.

In terms of days of anticipated coverage, it revealed that OECD trade stocks in October stood at 61.6 days, 0.7 days below the 2015-2019 average.

In addition, he stressed the need to consider the market implications of last week’s announcement of the possible coordinated release of 70 million barrels of oil from the strategic reserves of various consuming countries.

He noted that the implications of such uncertainties for oversupply in Q1 to Q2 2022 (1Q-2Q2022) should be carefully monitored.

He listed the future of monetary policy, inflationary pressures, possible re-introduction of lockdowns, vaccine adoption rates, vaccine resistance of the Omicron variant of COVID-19, and supply chain bottlenecks such as some. of the uncertainties that cloud the panorama.

According to him, these uncertainties and implications on the balance of global oil supply and demand are analyzed in a scenario analysis as reflected in the report of the Board of the Economic Commission (ECB).

In an overview of market developments, as discussed at the 136th Meeting of the ECB, he recalled that more than 55 percent of the world’s population has received at least one vaccine against the coronavirus.

According to official statistics, more than 262 million people have fallen ill and there have been more than 5.2 million deaths.

Forecasts for world economic growth for 2021 and 2022 stand at 5.6% and 4.2%, respectively.

According to him, while a multitude of challenges to economic recovery remain, the world economy continues to improve, albeit at disparate speeds across many regions.

He said that the emergence of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 and the reintroduction of blockades in many regions of the world constitute the main uncertainties related to public health.

Source: NAN

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