- Mexico's exports grew 19.5 percent on-year to 479.56 billion US dollars in the first 10 months, driven by manufactured goods and oil, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography said on Monday.
Imports rose 22.8 percent to $506.87 billion, leaving the trade deficit at $27.309 billion, the agency said in its monthly trade balance report.
In a separate report, Mexican financial group Banorte said global price distortions continue to affect trade flows, with some signs of "cooling off."
The moderation in global demand could be due to "further monetary tightening" by central banks around the world, among other things, Banorte said.
"Considering all of the above, we believe that trade is likely to slow in the fourth quarter of 2022 and into 2023, in line with our general view of economic activity," the financial group said.
Mexico, the second largest economy in Latin America after Brazil, is highly dependent on business cycles in the United States.
The Mexican economy grew 4.8 percent in 2021, after an 8.2 percent drop from the previous year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The country's economy is expected to grow 2.1 percent this year and 2.1 percent in 2023, according to the World Bank. ■
- More than 700 shootings have taken place near Swedish schools in the past three years, Swedish Television (SVT) reported on Monday.
In that period, 196,000 children between the ages of 7 and 16 attend a school where one or several shootings have been recorded 500 meters from the school premises, SVT said, citing an analysis published by the Infostat statistics company.
This corresponds to 16 percent of all children in compulsory school, but in and around the capital Stockholm and the city of Malmo, almost half of the children attend schools where shootings have been reported, SVT said.
In Stockholm the figure is 47 percent and in Malmö 45 percent. In Sodertalje, some 29 km southwest of the capital, the proportion is even higher, 54 percent.
Last year, there were 344 shootings in the country, according to the Swedish Police Authority. Of these, 45 resulted in deaths.
Most of the shootings are believed to be gang related and this year is even worse than last, according to the Swedish police authority. As of November 15, 360 shootings had resulted in 57 deaths. Ninety-eight of the victims were injured but survived.
The fact that most of the gang members involved in shootings are in their teens or twenties may explain why shootings near schools have become so common, an expert told SVT.
"When there are more shootings, it also approaches schools. Young people know their surroundings and know where to hide weapons or how to escape from the scene as quickly as possible, since it is their territory," said Sven Granath, a criminologist. at the Swedish Police Authority, he told SVT.
Although most of the shootings in SVT's survey have taken place outside of school hours, many children are still affected by the violence, he told SVT.
"It's a problem that shootings happen and that the places where the violence takes place are so close. It creates a lot of insecurity and it can also lead to a sense of injustice, as some students may see shootings more often than others." Granath told SVT.
Studies conducted in the United States and Mexico have shown that gang-related violence can harm children's futures, as they become less focused in school and worsen outcomes, SVT reported.
This may also be the case in Sweden, an expert told SVT.
“Many of the children I have met found it more difficult to concentrate when there was a shooting in the area,” Jonas Lindback, a doctoral student in child and youth studies at the University of Gothenburg who has studied the daily lives of children, told SVT. The students.
"And if you don't study, you risk ending up 'on the streets', a life that most describe as a dead end." ■
Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador led huge crowds of supporters on a march through the capital Sunday in a show of political strength by the left-wing populist.
The rally came as allies of Lopez Obrador, known by his initials AMLO, jockey for position ahead of the next presidential election in 2024, in which he cannot run.
Lopez Obrador, 69, was mobbed by supporters as he spent more than five hours walking a few kilometers (miles) through the crowds to Mexico City’s main square, amid cries of “it’s an honour to be with Obrador.
” An estimated 1.
2 million people joined the rally, according to presidential spokesman Jesus Ramirez, although there was no independent confirmation of that figure.
Lopez Obrador delivered a speech outlining what he considers to be the main accomplishments of his four years in office so far, including measures to alleviate poverty, improve public services and fight corruption.
Mariachi bands entertained the president’s supporters, who arrived on buses from around the country, many wearing purple, the colour of his Morena party.
“The president is not alone,” read a placard at the rally, while others vowed support for the government’s controversial electoral reform plan.
“I like the way AMLO governs, always doing everything for the most vulnerable,” said Alma Perez, a 35-year-old teacher who travelled from the southern state of Guerrero to join the march.
Lopez Obrador “has done what no other president has done for the poor,” said Ramon Suarez, a 33-year-old electrician.
“He has some areas in which to improve such as security, but that’s not done overnight,” Suarez added.
It was the first such march led by a Mexican president in at least four decades, according to experts.
The rally comes two weeks after tens of thousands joined an opposition protest against the president’s proposed electoral reform.
Lopez Obrador wants to “show muscle,” said Fernando Dworak, a political analyst at the Mexican Autonomous Institute of Technology.
“It was a serious mistake by the opposition to believe that the president can be beaten on the streets,” he told AFP, referring to the November 13 anti-government protest.
– ‘Oiled machinery’ –Lopez Obrador, who enjoys an approval rating of nearly 60 percent, owes much of his popularity to his social welfare programs aimed at helping the elderly and disadvantaged Mexicans.
Mexican presidents are barred from serving more than one term, and Lopez Obrador again ruled out trying to change the constitution to stay in office.
“No to re-election,” he told supporters.
At the same time, Lopez Obrador is keen to see his Morena party hold onto power after he stands aside.
Three of the president’s allies and potential successors — Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard and Interior Minister Adan Augusto Lopez — accompanied him at the rally.
Lopez Obrador knows “that in order for him to win elections, he needs oiled machinery that works all the time,” said Gustavo Lopez, a political scientist at Tecnologico de Monterrey, a Mexican university.
Opposition parties accuse Lopez Obrador of being an “authoritarian” populist who is “militarizing” the country by giving a greater role to the armed forces in both security and infrastructure projects.
His efforts to revamp the independent National Electoral Institute (INE) have proven particularly controversial.
Lopez Obrador alleges that the INE endorsed fraud when he ran unsuccessfully for the presidency in 2006 and 2012, before winning in 2018.
He wants the organization to be replaced by a new body with members chosen by voters instead of lawmakers and with a smaller budget.
Critics see the plan as an attack on one of Mexico’s most important democratic institutions.
The reform would require support from at least two-thirds of lawmakers in Congress, and Lopez Obrador’s political opponents have vowed to oppose the changes.
- The United States allowed the country's oil giant Chevron Corp. on Saturday to resume "limited" extraction of natural resources in Venezuela and export Venezuelan oil, after the Venezuelan government and the opposition alliance reached an agreement to break the political deadlock.
Chevron has received a six-month license authorizing the California-based driller to resume oil production. It was also allowed to import Venezuelan oil into the United States again.
However, the newly issued permit, known as General License 41, prevents Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA from profiting from Chevron's oil sales, according to the Treasury Department.
A senior US administration official told reporters at a briefing that "the proceeds will go towards repaying the debt to Chevron."
The Treasury Department said that other Venezuela-related sanctions and restrictions imposed by the United States are still in place.
The United States issued the license the same day that Venezuela and the opposition coalition Plataforma Unitaria began political talks in Mexico City, where both sides agreed to make efforts to address the social and humanitarian problems of the Latin American country, and to continue talks related to the elections. 2024.
Washington's recent actions, including a push for talks between the political factions in Venezuela and repeated signs of easing sanctions, have led to speculation that it wanted to increase output of Venezuelan oil to reduce high energy prices that have been hitting American consumers.
The senior administration official denied this, saying that Chevron extracting oil from Venezuela "is not something that is going to affect international oil prices." ■
- CBOT agricultural futures generally traded lower last week due to the US Thanksgiving holiday and the continued impact of COVID-19, Chicago-based research company AgResource said on Saturday. .
Farm futures are expected lower on slowing US and global economic growth rates, AgResource said, noting that rallies in US farm markets are unlikely to continue.
December CBOT corn finished firm for a second week amid positive seasonal trends, as the market turns inward and focuses on US ethanol production margins and rising domestic supplies. High demand from Mexico has offset weak interest elsewhere. The Chinese market has recovered while waiting for the Brazilian demand.
The South American weather becomes the first priority until December onwards. Sufficient rain will fall to facilitate planting of the second maize crop in the next three to four weeks, but a significant improvement in subsoil moisture will remain. Rainfall of 15 to 18 inches will be needed between December and February for Argentine yields to meet or exceed trend, the research firm said.
However, further tightness in the global market depends solely on the loss of supply. March corn above $6.80 will be hard to sustain.
CBOT wheat contracts hit fresh multi-month lows due to Russia's continued dominance in world trade. The US market's premium to other markets has narrowed, but there are no signs that demand for US exports will improve in the next 60 days.
Wheat has a potentially bullish long-term story amid the year-over-year decline in winter planting in the Black Sea and the ongoing extreme drought in the southern and western US plains.
Soybean futures fell in the holiday-shortened trading week and broader market news was limited. Cumulative soybean export inspections now stand at 629 million bushels, down from 703 million bushels last year.
The National Supply Company of Brazil reported progress in soybean planting. All indications from South America continue to point to a record crop.
Unlike last year, the United States will see limited soybean sales after January 1, and the pace of exports will continue to trend downward. This keeps the CBOT soybean price outlook bearish on rallies, with key resistance for March soybean futures at $14.60-14.90 in the coming months with a test of 12.50-13.25. dollars scheduled for spring or early summer. ■
- The climate for doing business in Latin America has improved in the fourth quarter compared to the third, influenced by better perceptions about the current situation, but remained less than positive, said a report released on Wednesday.
Brazilian think tank Fundación Getulio Vargas said in its quarterly report that the Economic Climate Index (ECI) rose 11.8 points to 66.5 points, a level still well below the 100-point mark that indicates a favorable climate. .
Constructed as the geometric mean of the Present Situation Index (PSI) and the Expectations Index (EI), the ECI increased this quarter mainly due to an improvement in the PSI, which rose 22.7 points to 67 points, according to the report. The IE registered 66.1 points with a slight increase of 0.6 points, indicating stability.
Latin America's ICE has remained mostly at an unfavorable level since the third quarter of 2013, according to the report.
In the fourth quarter, the business climate in Brazil has improved the most, with an ECI increase of 30 points, while Mexico, Paraguay, Peru and Bolivia have also seen an improvement, but only Paraguay (114.7). and Uruguay (108.2) were in the favorable zone.
"There was an improvement in the current situation driven by the largest economies in the region, but expectations rose little or fell," the report says. ■
- US crude oil production averaged 12.1 million barrels per day (b/d) during the week ending November 18, unchanged from the previous week, the Oilfield Administration said Wednesday. US Energy Information (EIA).
The figure is up 600,000 b/d from this time last year, according to the EIA.
More than 80 percent of US crude oil production growth comes from the lower 48 states, which does not include production from Alaska and the federally offshore Gulf of Mexico, according to the report.
The United States has become a major oil producer in recent years helped by the growth of its shale oil production. ■
- It was an unpleasant ride in complete silence for the German team back to the team hotel in northern Qatar.
Each of the 110 kilometers seemed endless as the 2014 world champions found themselves in shock after a 2-1 defeat against Japan on their 2022 FIFA World Cup debut in Doha.
It may be a curious side effect that two Japanese players employed by top-tier German clubs scored the winning goals: Freiburg's Ritsu Doan and Bochum's Takuma Asano.
Bad memories may have surfaced regarding the 2018 tournament in Russia when an early exit from the group followed a 1-0 loss in the opener against Mexico.
At present, there doesn't seem to be much reason for optimism to turn things around this time around, as Germany take on Spain, the group's presumed strongest competitor, on Sunday in a game that has already turned into a final.
Statistics may have come to the mind of manager Hansi Flick, as Germany have only won one of the last seven meetings against Spain.
Against Japan, Germany's weaknesses were overwhelmingly exposed as the team lacked efficiency up front and on the faltering back line.
Not having an efficient striker who consistently scores goals, a convincing number nine and a struggling defense seems to become too much of a burden.
"We need a different approach to play against Spain and we will do that, as Spain is a different team playing different football," Flick said. The German coach admitted: "We are brutally disappointed because we made mistakes that you cannot make in a World Cup."
The team and the coach seem to feel the pressure emerging considering the second group game. "Today we didn't have the final will to cross the finish line," said goalkeeper Manuel Neuer. "We allowed Japan to come back to life because we lacked dynamism and determination."
Dominating the game for 60 minutes, Germany found no answers after Japan changed their tactics and increased their attacks. Flick's team gambled away a 1-0 lead and missed several chances.
Not converting an advantage into a final victory has accompanied the German team in recent months. Exaggerated self-reflection seems like an additional problem.
"It's time to show character now. The situation we find ourselves in because of our performance is challenging. The story is: when you're not effective enough, you don't get anywhere," Bayern striker Thomas Muller said before admit: "I'm surprised right now."
Flick's tactic of primarily relying on a back line of three with Leipzig defender David Raum as an additional player covering the left flank failed when Japan used the spaces back. Experienced forces like Niklas Sule, Antonio Rudiger and Nico Schlotterbeck were unable to create stability.
Mistakes by Sule and Schlotterbeck allowed Japan to take the lead after the German lost control in midfield following the substitution of Manchester City midfielder Ilkay Gundogan.
"We have to use the three days that we have ahead to develop a better state of mind and talk about the things that we inevitably have to improve. We will talk a lot," said Flick trying to spread optimism "since we know what quality there is in our team." . ."
The German coach spoke of six points "that are still at stake and it is up to us to do the job." ■
An estimated 700 million tourists travelled internationally between January and September, more than double (+133%) the number recorded for the same period in 2021.
This equates to 63% of 2019 levels and puts the sector on course to reach 65% of its pre-pandemic levels this year, in line with UNWTO scenarios.
Results were boosted by strong pent-up demand, improved confidence levels and the lifting of restrictions in an increasing number of destinations.
Highlighting the speed at which the sector has recovered from the worst crisis in its history, the latest World Tourism Barometer from UNWTO reveals that monthly arrivals were 64% below 2019 levels in January 2022 and had reached -27% by September.
An estimated 340 million international arrivals were recorded in the third quarter of 2022 alone, almost 50% of the nine-month total.
Europe continues to lead global recoveryEurope continues to lead the rebound of international tourism.
The region welcomed 477 million international arrivals in January-September 2022 (68% of the world total), hitting 81% of pre-pandemic levels.
This was more than double that of 2021 (+126%) with results boosted by strong intra-regional demand and travel from the United States.
Europe saw particularly robust performance in Q3, when arrivals reached almost 90% of 2019 levels.
At the same time, the Middle East saw international arrivals more than triple (+225%) year on year in January-September 2022, climbing to 77% of pre-pandemic levels..
Africa (+166%) and the Americas (+106%) also recorded strong growth compared to 2021, reaching 63% and 66% of 2019 levels, respectively.
In Asia and the Pacific (+230%) arrivals more than tripled in the first nine months of 2022, reflecting the opening of many destinations, including Japan at the end of September.
However, arrivals in Asia and the Pacific remained 83% below 2019 levels.
China, a key source market for the region, remains closed.
Arrivals and receipts at – or above – pre-pandemic levelsSeveral subregions reached 80% to 90% of their pre-pandemic arrivals in January-September 2022.
Western Europe (88%) and Southern Mediterranean Europe (86%) saw the fastest recovery towards 2019 levels.
The Caribbean, Central America (both 82%) and Northern Europe (81%) also recorded strong results.
Destinations reporting arrivals above pre-pandemic levels in the nine months through September include Albania, Ethiopia, Honduras, Andorra, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Colombia, El Salvador and Iceland.
In the month of September arrivals surpassed pre-pandemic levels in the Middle East (+3% over 2019) and the Caribbean (+1%) and came close in Central America (-7%), Northern Europe (-9%) and Southern and Mediterranean Europe (-10%).
Meanwhile, some destinations recorded notable increases in international tourism receipts in the first seven to nine months of 2022, including Serbia, Romania, Türkiye, Latvia, Portugal, Pakistan, Mexico, Morocco and France.
The recovery can also be seen in outbound tourism spending from major source markets, with strong results from France where expenditure reached -8% through September, compared to 2019.
Other markets reporting strong spending in the first six to nine months of 2022 were Germany, Belgium, Italy, the United States, Qatar, India and Saudi Arabia.
Strong demand for air travel and hotel accommodationThe robust recovery of tourism is also reflected in various industry indicators such as air capacity and hotel metrics, as recorded in the UNWTO Tourism Recovery Tracker.
Air seat capacity on international routes (measured in available seat-kilometres or ASKs) in January-August reached 62% of 2019 levels, with Europe (78%) and the Americas (76%) posting the strongest results.
Worldwide domestic capacity rose to 86% of 2019 levels, with the Middle East (99%) virtually achieving pre-pandemic levels (IATA).
Meanwhile, according to STR, global hotel occupancy rates reached 66% in September 2022, from 43% in January.
Europe led the way with occupancy levels at 77% in September 2022, following rates of 74% in July and August.
The Americas (66%), the Middle East (63%) and Africa (61%) all saw occupancy rates above 60% in September.
By subregion, Southern Mediterranean Europe (79%), Western Europe (75%) and Oceania (70%) showed the highest occupancy rates in September 2022.
Cautious optimism for the months aheadThe challenging economic environment, including persistently high inflation and soaring energy prices, aggravated by the Russian offensive in Ukraine, could weigh on the pace of recovery in Q4 and into 2023.
The latest survey among the UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts shows a downgrade in confidence levels for the last four months of 2022, reflecting more cautious optimism.
Despite growing challenges pointing to a softening of the recovery pace, export revenues from tourism could reach USD 1.2 to 1.3 trillion in 2022, a 60-70% increase over 2021, or 70-80% of the USD 1.8 trillion recorded in 2019.
- The meeting of leaders of the Pacific Alliance, previously scheduled for Friday, is postponed due to the refusal of the Peruvian Congress to allow President Pedro Castillo to travel to Mexico, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said on Tuesday.
“The meeting of the Pacific Alliance was suspended because the president of Peru was not allowed to attend,” López Obrador, who assumed the interim presidency of the alliance from Castillo, announced during his daily press conference.
The leaders of the alliance members - Mexico, Colombia, Peru and Chile - were scheduled to meet in Mexico this week, but López Obrador said they are now looking for a meeting later in December, most likely in Peru.
However, the president said that he will hold bilateral meetings this week with his Chilean and Colombian counterparts, Gabriel Boric and Gustavo Petro, respectively.
In addition, Guillermo Lasso, president of Ecuador, which is in the process of joining the Pacific Alliance, will also visit Mexico, he added. ■