Liverpool vs Real Madrid: Sliding doors and the moments that could have changed the Champions League QF

A Random Confluence of Events

Liverpool never looked like mounting a comeback against Real Madrid but one moment summed up its night. Darwin Núñez didn’t quite get a Steven Gerrard chance.

All the Gin Joints in All the Towns

Do you ever think about the concept of the film Sliding Doors? It’s the idea that your life can change upon the smallest moment. Maybe you met your partner randomly one night at a pub, for instance. “Of all the gin joints in all the towns in all the world,” and all that.

Endless Possibilities

The notion often crosses my mind in relation to football. A 90-minute match is such a random confluence of events that anything can happen. In ‘The Numbers Game’, Chris Anderson and David Sally estimated that “about half of all goals contain a detectable, visible proportion of good fortune.” Or bad fortune, depending on your perspective.

A Sedate Match

Take Liverpool’s 1-0 loss to Real Madrid, for instance. At face value it was a pretty sedate match, between a team who had the security blanket of a three-goal advantage and one who has struggled for consistent form throughout 2022/23. Per FBRef, there were just shy of 1,300 touches in the game, and that’s only in terms of statistically recordable actions, never mind the things which don’t show up in the on-ball data. The possibilities opened by that much activity are endless, even if the match played out largely as most people assumed it would.

Upsetting The Odds

And this was despite the Reds having upset the odds countless times in the past, both under Jürgen Klopp and prior to his arrival. His side was given just a seven per cent chance of overturning their 3-0 loss to Barcelona in 2019 (per FiveThirtyEight) yet they managed it. The same source put their likelihood four per cent lower of advancing in Madrid, and they couldn’t upset the odds this time.

No Panic Stations

It would’ve been interesting to see how the defending champions reacted had the Reds gone ahead. The likelihood is they wouldn’t have changed anything, at least unless Liverpool had gone two goals up. Real Madrid are the master of managing their way through the Champions League, so they wouldn’t have panicked had they conceded first.

Potential Comebacks

But let’s imagine the train doors had slid open and Liverpool had gotten through them to make it 1-0. It would have given them a platform upon which they could build a decent assault on the unlikeliest of comebacks. While it remained 0-0, their hopes rested as much on not conceding as scoring themselves, making the denouement almost inevitable.

A Fierce Shot

As the Reds didn’t muster a single Opta-defined clear-cut chance (an opportunity where you would expect the attacker to score), beating Thibaut Courtois remained a pipe dream. The Belgian was most severely tested by Darwin Núñez, with Liverpool’s number 27 unleashing a fierce shot in the first half which the Real goalkeeper had to turn around his left-hand post.

The Núñez Moment

Núñez might have had a big chance shortly after the break. Liverpool counter-attacked and the ball reached Mohamed Salah, who had the opportunity to put his Uruguayan colleague clean through on goal. Sadly his poor pass meant the possible golden opportunity did not come to fruition.

A Different Course

Even if it had, there’s no guarantee Núñez would have scored. His record this season is evidence enough of that. But if he had, Liverpool would have potentially begun a three-goal comeback in the 54th minute. Does that strike a chord with you, for any reason? If it does, it’s likely because Steven Gerrard scored at the same point of the 2005 Champions League final in Istanbul. John Arne Riise initially attempts a cross, but it’s blocked and the ball goes back to him, enabling the Norwegian to then deliver an assist for his skipper. But what if the first effort had deflected out of play? The whole game unfolds in a different fashion and in all likelihood the history of European football takes a different course. Without denigrating Salah too harshly for a single poor pass, Núñez was denied a Gerrard moment and who knows what might have happened from there? They’re a cruel mistress, those sliding doors.

Credit: https://www.liverpool.com/liverpool-fc-news/features/darwin-nunez-real-madrid-liverpool-26487128

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