Africa

IMF Executive Board concludes 2021 Article IV consultation with Republic of the Congo

Published

on

IMF Executive Board concludes 2021 Article IV consultation with Republic of the Congo

Directors commended the authorities’ fiscal prudence and debt restructuring efforts which have contributed to debt sustainability

WASHINGTON DC, United States of America, September 28, 2021 / APO Group / –

The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with the Republic of Congo on Friday, September 24, 2021.

The COVID-19 pandemic and oil price shocks have taken a heavy toll on the Congolese economy, but there are signs of recovery. Positive non-oil economic growth is expected this year, supported by the easing of lockdowns, the gradual roll-out of vaccines, social spending, domestic arrears repayments and some expansion of agricultural and mining activities. The contraction in oil production has slowed as access to oil fields and investment normalize; and the value of oil revenues and exports increases due to rising oil prices. Overall growth is expected to be around zero percent in 2021 with moderate inflation (2 percent) and a current account surplus (12 percent of GDP).

Fiscal policy continues to balance difficult trade-offs: tackling the pandemic, support essential for a resilient economic recovery, and prudent debt management.

The non-oil primary deficit is expected to widen to 17% of non-oil GDP in 2021, driven by spending on social assistance, health care, education and infrastructure. Development partner grants are lower than last year, but non-oil revenues are improving and cuts in transfers and subsidies to state-owned enterprises and cuts in spending on goods and services are helping to create fiscal space . The non-oil deficit is mainly financed by improving oil revenues.

Debt sustainability has been restored although significant vulnerabilities remain, with overall debt expected to reach 84% of GDP by the end of 2021. Substantial repayments of domestic arrears and external debt have been facilitated by restructuring external commercial loans, improved debt management, fiscal discipline and windfall oil revenues. Immediate liquidity needs are also supported by the G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI). However, liquidity risks and vulnerabilities to negative oil price shocks are high. Pending the clearance of external arrears and the conclusion of the remaining restructuring negotiations, the debt is classified as “distressed”.

In the medium and long terms, the main challenges will be to get out of fragility while adapting to climate change and to reduce oil revenues in response to the global transition to low carbon economies. Non-oil economic growth is expected to gradually recover through economic diversification and enhanced resilience, which will benefit from continued governance and business environment reforms, increased social and infrastructure spending. and prudent debt management. The outlook is subject to great uncertainty due to the risks of further pandemic waves, volatile outlook for oil revenues, climate change shocks and the successful implementation of reforms. On the positive side, investments in mining, oil and gas could increase with new discoveries on the ground, and accelerated reform implementation could catalyze more concessional finance.

Board assessment

“The executive directors agreed with the direction of the staff appraisal. They noted that the Republic of Congo has been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic and oil price shocks. The recovery is expected to take hold in 2022, as considerable uncertainty surrounds the outlook. Directors agreed that achieving the growth needed to move out of fragility and sustain progress in poverty reduction will require significant efforts to overcome structural barriers, build climate resilience and diversify the economy. Strengthening governance and transparency are essential to obtain much-needed financing from the Fund and development partners to support the authorities’ adjustment efforts. In this context, Directors welcomed the authorities’ intention to enter into discussions with the IMF on a possible extended credit facility arrangement.

“Directors commended the authorities’ fiscal prudence and debt restructuring efforts that have contributed to debt sustainability. They agreed that fiscal policy should continue to support recovery in the short term, by increasing spending on health and social assistance, as well as the payment of domestic arrears. Noting that debt risks remain substantial, Directors stressed the importance of medium-term fiscal consolidation, increased debt management and transparency, and non-oil revenue mobilization. They recommended a complete overhaul of the petroleum sector tax regime, a reduction in transfers to public enterprises (SOE) and an improvement in the efficiency of public investments. Directors stressed that these measures would help create space for much needed social and infrastructure spending. Given the funding constraints, they supported the authorities’ plan to use the newly allocated SDRs for essential social programs.

“Directors commended on-going efforts to reduce vulnerabilities in the financial sector, including through domestic arrears clearance. Nonetheless, the persistently high bad debts require close and continuous monitoring of the banking sector.

“Directors called for further efforts to improve governance and transparency. They welcomed the progress made towards the adoption of a new anti-corruption law and encouraged a strong focus on the implementation of the anti-corruption architecture, supported by measures to improve corporate governance. Government and strengthen public finance management more broadly.

“Directors stressed the importance of advancing structural reforms to support economic diversification and adaptation to climate change. They encouraged the authorities to continue to improve the business environment, facilitate private sector investment and promote competitiveness.

Short Link: https://wp.me/pcj2iU-3Czh

NNN

NNN: :is a Nigerian online news portal that publishes breaking news in Nigeria, and across the world. Our journalists are honest, fair, accurate, thorough and courageous in gathering, reporting and interpreting news in the best interest of the public, because truth is the cornerstone of journalism and they strive diligently to ascertain the truth in every news report. Contact: editor @ nnn.ng

Recent Posts

National Gallery of Arts tasks youths on creativity Nigeria, S/Arabia agree to boost economic cooperation LASBCA urges residents to report building infractions 2022 Budget: NASS promises enhanced allocation for security Oil magnate lauds TAJBank for expanding drive for non-interest banking Well-developed capital market’ll catalyse economic, infrastructure devt — Obaseki NIMASA DG lists incentives to boost Nigeria’s maritime sector Anambra Guber: Police promise to be civil, firm during poll E-Naira’ll not affect commercial banks’ deposits – Adedipe Upstream Commission boss assures of increased investments in oil sector Cooking Gas: Experts task FG on massive investment, as consumers bemoan price hike Facebook changes company name to Meta OPEC, GECF express commitment to ensure stability of global energy market Medical Lab. Council inspects facilities in FCT, prosecutes offenders Coronavirus: Less than 10% of African countries will meet key COVID-19 vaccination target Guber poll: NSCDC deploys 20,000 personnel to Anambra CBN sensitises public on eNaira, other initiatives Strengthening the role of NOCs in Africa: Sonangol confirms its participation and diamond sponsorship in African Energy Week in Cape Town Nigerian govt spends N4.5bn to feed 228,646 pupils in Gombe – NSIP ASUU offers N100,000 scholarship to female ATBU student Leading forestry scientists call for freeze on new logging operations in Congo, urge governments to act Insecurity: PGF boss blasts Sheikh Gumi, says bandits must be declared terrorists Plateau Assembly crisis: Embattled Speaker holds sitting outside complex KAROTA sacks officer who caused traffic gridlock in Kano Troops deactivate 27 illegal refining sites in Niger Delta – DHQ As part of the launch of the second phase of the Aid for Trade Initiative for the Arab States (AfTIAS 2.0) program: US $ 15.5 million to support economic integration and job creation in Arab countries Buhari approves construction of N21.9bn 14-bed Presidential Clinic  Recruitment: Reps query medical research institute over alleged federal character violation Biden heads to Europe for G20, COP26 summits Insecurity: Nigerian Army inducts 60 new Armoured Personnel Carriers Aisha Buhari vows fight for women, girl-child education PenCom introduces non-interest fund pension contributors, retirees P&ID scam: Court issues arrest warrant against Irishman FIFA Museum announces ‘211’: a collaborative global exhibition on football heritage and culture Yahaya Bello presents N145.8bn 2022 Budget proposal to Kogi Assembly Toronto Raptors Vice President and President Masai Ujiri Joins Fremantle & Passenger Basketball Africa League Documentary Series as Executive Producer Libyan Oil and Gas Minister Mohamed Aoun to lead Libyan delegation to African Energy Week in Cape Town FC Barcelona appoint Barjuan caretaker coach West Africa bloc says Mali envoy’s expulsion ‘extreme’ Bank employee faces N2.1m theft charge in Lagos Oracle and Orange announce joint intention to strengthen digital infrastructure in West Africa Nigerian military confirms killing of ISWAP leader Mallam Bako, 37 others Nigerian military confirm killing ISWAP leader Mallam Bako, 37 others Nigerian troops kill ISWAP leader Bako, 37 others Drug abuse: 172 youths ‘went mad’ in Zamfara – NDLEA Network International annonce une croissance de 19% de son chiffre d’affaires au troisième trimestre Corrupt politicians using real estate to launder public funds – ICPC N22bn Earned Allowances: ASUU, NASU, SSANU at loggerheads over sharing formula Islamic State claims responsibility for Iraq’s Diyala province attack A path to greatness! Afolabi Oke, founder of Global Infoswift, featured in the November / December 2021 issue of Pleasures magazine