Heat vs. Celtics Game 4 odds, expert picks: Miami goes for a shocking sweep

With the Denver Nuggets completing a Western Conference Finals sweep of the Los Angeles Lakers on Monday night, the Heat get a shot to complete a rout of their own on Tuesday when they host the Boston Celtics for Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals in Miami.

Stunningly, the Heat have leapt out to a 3-0 series lead on a Celtics team that entered as significant favorites (-550) to win the series. But given the discipline and execution disparity between these sides, it would now be an overwhelming surprise for Miami to dawdle before punching its second NBA Finals ticket in the last four years.

During the NBA Playoffs, The Athletic’s writers will make their straight-up picks. You’ll find picks, coverage and the latest odds here. Our in-depth NBA coverage is linked below the picks.

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All you can be is impressed by what this Heat team has achieved this postseason. After stumbling through a slog of a regular season — particularly on the offensive end, where the Heat ranked 27th in the NBA in 3-point percentage — Miami is now one win away from an NBA Finals berth on the back of Jimmy Butler’s heroics, scalding team-wide shooting and a collective defensive mindset that has sucked the soul from the team that led the league in point differential nearly wire-to-wire.

Payback from last season’s conference finals defeat to these Celtics is top of mind as well.

Knowing where to begin when forecasting what has gone wrong for Boston is hard. Its All-NBA forwards need to shoot the ball at a significantly higher clip and take better care of the basketball. Its role players’ outside shooting has collectively evaporated. The defensive identity that propelled last year’s run has cratered. A rookie head coach that appears out of his depth — particularly compared to his adversary — looms over all.

It all resulted in an outright drubbing in Game 3 that left the reigning Eastern Conference champions battered and beaten — seemingly on a physical and mental level.

If you are a Boston backer looking for consolation… 19 years ago, the Red Sox were walloped 19-8 by the Yankees in Game 3 of the 2004 ALCS, giving New York a 3-0 series lead. Boston became the first team in MLB history to overcome said deficit to advance to the World Series.

But such consolation is, of course, not substantive or predictive in this circumstance. Miami appeared destined for a trip back to basketball’s grandest stage in a shocking development by the No. 8 next to their name, but not in the way they have competed since Game 1 of the first round.

Finally, they are favored to prevail in Game 4 and own +250 odds to win the NBA Finals, trailing only the Nuggets’ odds in that category.

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Rob Schaefer is a freelance writer for The Athletic covering the NBA and college basketball. Before contributing to The Athletic, he worked as a Bulls beat reporter for NBC Sports Chicago and sports business reporter for Fortune. He is a graduate of Northwestern University.

Credit: theathletic.com