Sa ido kan Tattalin Arzikin Lebanon, Lokacin bazara 2023: Daidaita Rikicin Babu Hanya don Tsayawa [EN/AR] – Lebanon

BEIRUT, Mayu 16, 2023 – Bayan fage na daidaita yanayin rikici, tattalin arzikin Lebanon ya ci gaba da kasancewa cikin koma baya, mai nisa daga hanyar daidaitawa, balle hanyar murmurewa, a cewar sabon sa ido kan tattalin arzikin bankin duniya na Lebanon da aka fitar a yau. Rashin gazawar tsarin banki na Lebanon da rugujewar kudin sun haifar da tattalin arzikin tsabar kudi da aka kiyasta kusan rabin GDP a shekarar 2022. Matsayin aiwatar da manufofin, wanda ke da alaƙa da yanke shawara da rashin isassun yanke shawara na gudanar da rikicin da ke lalata cikakken tsari da daidaito. , ya ci gaba da lalata babban kuɗi na kowane nau’i, gami da ɗan adam da zamantakewa, yana ba da hanya ga babban rashin daidaituwa na zamantakewa tare da masu cin nasara kaɗan kawai da yawancin masu asara.

The Lebanon Economic Monitor (LEM) Spring 2023 “Madaidaita Rikicin Babu Hanya don Tabbatarwa” yana ba da sabuntawa game da ci gaban tattalin arziki na baya-bayan nan kuma yana kimanta hangen nesa na tattalin arziki da kasada a cikin yanayin ci gaba na rashin tabbas da rikice-rikicen siyasa.

Takin koma bayan tattalin arzikin Lebanon ya ragu a cikin 2022, kodayake gabaɗayan yanayin da yanayin bai canza ba. An kiyasta GDP na gaske ya ragu da kashi 2.6% a cikin 2022, wanda ya kawo jimlar tattalin arzikin tun daga 2018 zuwa 39.9% na GDP. Duk da ɗan ci gaban da aka samu a ayyukan kamfanoni masu zaman kansu, faɗuwar gibin asusu na yanzu – dogon rashin daidaituwa na tsarin – yana ci gaba da yin la’akari da haɓakar haɓaka. A bayan manyan abubuwan da ake shigowa da su da kuma faɗuwar fitar da kayayyaki zuwa ketare, gibin asusu na yanzu wanda ake ci gaba da samun kuɗi, a mafi yawan ɓangaren, ta hanyar babban bankin kasa da kasa mai amfani da shi, ya ƙaru zuwa kashi 20.6% na GDP (mai kama da matakan pre-rikici). Fam na Lebanon ya ci gaba da faduwa sosai duk kuwa da yadda babban bankin kasar ya yi yunkurin daidaita farashin musayar kasuwannin. Kudin ya yi hasarar sama da kashi 98 na kimarta kafin rikicin kafin watan Fabrairun 2023 kuma abubuwan faduwar darajar da suka yi cikin sauri sun tsananta kwanan nan. Haɗin kai ya kai 171.2% a cikin 2022, ɗaya daga cikin mafi girman farashi a duniya, wanda akasari ke haifar da hauhawar farashin abinci da abubuwan sha. Tare da ci gaba da ake sa ran, duk da cewa yana da ƙanƙantar da kai, karba cikin amfani mai zaman kansa da raguwar asusu na yanzu, LEM ta yi hasashen GDP na gaske don yin kwangila da ƙarin 0.5% a cikin 2023.

LEM tana ba da hujjar cewa raguwa a cikin ƙanƙantar ayyukan tattalin arziki baya nufin daidaitawa. Ya gano cewa a duk ginshiƙan tattalin arziƙi, yanke shawara na magance rikice-rikice na ad-hoc na ci gaba da lalata tsarin daidaitawa da cikakken tsarin farfadowa. Dangane da haka, dandalin Sayrafa, kayan aikin kuɗi na farko na BdL don daidaita fam na Lebanon, ba banda. A cikin nazarin dandali, LEM ta gano cewa dandalin Sayrafa yana nuna kayan aikin kuɗi mara kyau wanda ya haifar da jin daɗin ɗan gajeren lokaci na LBP a cikin kuɗin da ake samu na raguwar ajiyar kuɗi da kuma raunin BdL ma’auni, musamman ma idan babu sabon farashin canji. da tsarin kuɗi. Dandalin ya kuma rikide zuwa wata hanyar samar da ribar satar kudi: samun damar samun daloli ta wannan taga yana samar da ribar nan take ba tare da kasada ba da aka yi ta yadawa tare da adadin kudin banki, wanda aka kiyasta dalar Amurka biliyan 2.5 tun farkonsa.

LEM ta nuna abin da cikakken tsarin gyara da tsarin farfadowa zai haifar da abin da zai iya samu. Yana nazarin shawarar da aka yanke a maimakon ginshiƙai da yawa: manufofin kuɗi da musayar kuɗi, manufofin dorewar basussukan jama’a, tsarin fasalin ɓangaren kuɗi da manufofin kasafin kuɗi, yayin da yake mai da hankali kan yawancin masu asara da ƴan nasara da ke fitowa a sakamakon haka. gurguncewar siyasa bai hana aiwatar da shawarwarin gudanar da rikicin cikin tsaka mai wuya ba wanda ke hidima ga ƴan ƴan ƙwararrun mutane. Waɗannan ɓangarorin ɓangarorin suna jujjuya nauyin daidaitawar tattalin arziƙin zuwa ɓangarorin jama’a masu rauni.

Jean-Christophe Carret, darektan Bankin Duniya na Gabas ta Tsakiya ya ce “Muddin tattalin arzikin yana yin kwantiragi kuma yanayin rikice-rikice ya ci gaba, ana tsara yanayin rayuwa don kara lalacewa, talauci zai ci gaba da ruruwa.” ” Jinkirta aiwatar da cikakken tsarin yin garambawul da sake dawo da shi zai kara kara hasarar mutane da jama’a da kuma sanya farfadowar ya dade da tsada.”

Sashen Mayar da hankali na Musamman na LEM: “Kimanin Girman Tattalin Arzikin Kuɗi” yana nazarin haɓakar tattalin arziƙin kuɗaɗen dala da tasirinsa kan tsammanin farfadowa. An ƙiyasta akan dalar Amurka biliyan 9.9 ko kashi 45.7 na GDP a shekarar 2022, tattalin arzikin dala dala yana nuna saurin sauye-sauye zuwa ma’amalar kuɗaɗen kuɗaɗe bayan an rasa cikakkiyar amincewa a ɓangaren banki mai rauni da kuma cikin kuɗin gida. Tattalin arzikin kuɗi ya yi nisa daga mai ba da gudummawa ga ci gaba. Akasin haka, yana barazanar kawo cikas ga tasiri na tsarin kasafin kuɗi da na kuɗi, yana ƙara haɗarin ɓarnatar da kuɗi, yana ƙaruwa da rashin sani, kuma yana haifar da ƙarin guje wa biyan haraji. Haka kuma, karuwar dogaro kan hada-hadar kudi yana kuma yin barazanar sake dawo da ci gaban da kasar Lebanon ta samu tun kafin rikicin don inganta amincinta na hada-hadar kudi ta hanyar kafa ingantattun hanyoyin yaki da safarar kudade a bangaren banki na kasuwanci.