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CBOT Farm Futures Lower

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  The agricultural futures of the Chicago Stock Exchange CBOT fell last week due to lukewarm demand Peak inflation has been found but pushing inflation below 2 percent in 2023 will be tough The US and global economies are contracting and the Fed s grow up any longer mentality will not contribute to a lasting recovery in demand The outlook for CBOT agricultural futures is down due to slowing US and global economic growth rates Corn finished firm but was unable to break above what is now strong resistance based on the 6 75 to 6 85 charts for the March contract It is worth noting the positive market reaction to this week s renewal of the Black Sea export corridor Ultimately Ukraine s access to seaborne exports until mid March will boost exports there from 2022 2023 to 21 23 million metric tons up from the 15 5 million metric tons projected by the U S Department of Agriculture USA USDA The US market will struggle to find an additional share of the world feed grain market This in turn allows stocks to build up in 2022 2023 The number one priority after the Thanksgiving holidays is the climate and soil moisture in Argentina and southern Brazil Threats are absent in Brazil but additional rains are needed in Argentina before mid December when planting of second crop maize resumes Yield performance in South America is critical US wheat futures ended flat lower on the sale of fresh funds in Chicago following the renewal of the Black Sea export corridor The corridor will allow Ukraine to ship between 13 and 14 million metric tons of wheat in 2022 2023 compared to the USDA forecast of 11 million metric tons Russian exporters remain aggressive and pacing analysis shows that Russia can ship more than 42 million metric tons this year Heightened competition from winter export demand will challenge lasting rallies in the US and Europe AgResource suggests that 8 00 for CBOT wheat represents expanded Black Sea exports Exporter stocks use will be the second lowest on record and increasing exporter supplies requires favorable weather in the Northern Hemisphere next spring or early summer The fair value of wheat ranges from 8 00 to 8 50 Rallies must be sold Wheat remains in a wide range CBOT soybean futures ended lower amid collapsing crude oil markets negatively impacting renewable diesel potential and while the weather is non threatening across Brazil A short term uptrend line is intact but a close below 14 10 for the January contract may accelerate the long selloff Turmoil is not likely this week but with no clear threats to Brazil s yield potential in early December a more bearish pattern will unfold The US window to maximize exports closes in just 30 45 days Brazilian soybeans for February delivery are already being offered 0 85 below US Gulf origin and Brazil discounts will widen without a quick improvement in Mississippi River flows Coming export competition is tilted to the downside for US exporters in the new growing season CBOT soybeans have resistance above 14 50 14 75 Xinhua
CBOT Farm Futures Lower

Chicago Stock Exchange

– The agricultural futures of the Chicago Stock Exchange (CBOT) fell last week due to lukewarm demand.

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Peak inflation has been found, but pushing inflation below 2 percent in 2023 will be tough. The US and global economies are contracting, and the Fed’s “grow up any longer” mentality will not contribute to a lasting recovery in demand. The outlook for CBOT agricultural futures is down due to slowing US and global economic growth rates.

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Corn finished firm but was unable to break above what is now strong resistance based on the $6.75 to $6.85 charts for the March contract. It is worth noting the positive market reaction to this week’s renewal of the Black Sea export corridor.

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Ultimately, Ukraine‘s access to seaborne exports until mid-March will boost exports there from 2022-2023 to 21-23 million metric tons, up from the 15.5 million metric tons projected by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. USA (USDA). The US market will struggle to find an additional share of the world feed grain market. This, in turn, allows stocks to build up in 2022-2023.

The number one priority after the Thanksgiving holidays is the climate and soil moisture in Argentina and southern Brazil. Threats are absent in Brazil, but additional rains are needed in Argentina before mid-December, when planting of second crop maize resumes. Yield performance in South America is critical.

US wheat futures ended flat lower on the sale of fresh funds in Chicago following the renewal of the Black Sea export corridor. The corridor will allow Ukraine to ship between 13 and 14 million metric tons of wheat in 2022-2023, compared to the USDA forecast of 11 million metric tons. Russian exporters remain aggressive and pacing analysis shows that Russia can ship more than 42 million metric tons this year. Heightened competition from winter export demand will challenge lasting rallies in the US and Europe.

AgResource suggests that $8.00 for CBOT wheat represents expanded Black Sea exports. Exporter stocks/use will be the second lowest on record, and increasing exporter supplies requires favorable weather in the Northern Hemisphere next spring or early summer. The fair value of wheat ranges from $8.00 to $8.50. Rallies must be sold. Wheat remains in a wide range.

CBOT soybean futures ended lower amid collapsing crude oil markets, negatively impacting renewable diesel potential, and while the weather is non-threatening across Brazil. A short-term uptrend line is intact, but a close below $14.10 for the January contract may accelerate the long selloff.

Turmoil is not likely this week, but with no clear threats to Brazil’s yield potential in early December, a more bearish pattern will unfold. The US window to maximize exports closes in just 30-45 days. Brazilian soybeans for February delivery are already being offered $0.85 below US Gulf origin, and Brazil discounts will widen without a quick improvement in Mississippi River flows.

Coming export competition is tilted to the downside for US exporters in the new growing season. CBOT soybeans have resistance above $14.50-14.75. ■

(Xinhua)

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