Nigeria inflation rate don drop small for June 2026, according to new data from National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The headline inflation go down from 15.93% for May to 15.91% for June. This one be first drop for three months.
The NBS say the June figure mean say rate of price increase slow down compared to May. But food prices still dey high. Items like crayfish, fresh pepper, fresh tomatoes, dried green peas, yam flour, beef, banana, cassava flour, cow pea, garri, Irish potatoes, and yam tuber all contribute to the increase.
Month-on-month movement show some hope. From February, the month-on-month chart show extreme volatility, but for June e drop. This suggest say headline inflation fit don enter more predictable growth pattern. But fresh energy price crisis fit reset the movement.
On Monday, Dangote Petroleum Refinery change sale invoicing currency to dollars. This push depot prices up by over N100 per litre. Analysts say the change fit distort forex market and weaken naira. Weaker naira go increase cost of imported goods and raise inflation expectations.
Professor Uche Uwaleke from Nasarawa State University warn say inflation fit rise to 20% if pressure continue. For best-case scenario, e say country fit see 12% inflation, but that one no likely. E talk say base-case projection show inflation go remain high because of insecurity, exchange rate pressure, geopolitical tensions, food supply disruptions, and pre-election spending.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) expect Nigeria inflation to close at average 16% this year. But the figure still higher than Central Bank of Nigeria single-digit target. Nigeria no see single-digit inflation since 2015.
Food inflation still high. World Food Programme warn say about 35 million Nigerians go face acute and severe food insecurity for 2026 lean season. For northern Nigeria alone, over 17 million people across nine conflict-affected states dey in crisis or emergency hunger levels.
Core inflation, wey exclude volatile farm produce and energy, show signs of easing. But persistent high food inflation mean many households no dey feel relief. The disparity between slowing headline inflation and rising food prices highlight uneven nature of Nigeria disinflation process.
Not all analysts believe the moderation go last. Kabir Ibrahim, President of Nigeria Agro Business Group, say food inflation fit worsen. E blame government food importation programme, say government no consider medium- to long-term impact. Imported food force prices down, but cost farmers incur to produce locally dey rise, stripping them of profit. This discourage many from farming. Ibrahim say e good say government don start distributing free fertilisers to farmers, even though e dey come late.
