Di first half of 2026 na tough period for African currencies as US-Iran war shake global market, disrupt oil supply and push energy price high. Even though interim ceasefire don calm market and reduce fear of prolonged supply problem, di conflict still affect many African economies wey depend on imported fuel.
Brent crude wey cross $100 per barrel for di height of conflict don drop to around $71 after ceasefire and hope of better oil supply. Afreximbank for dia African Economic Outlook 2026 tok say at di end of March 2026, currencies of 29 African countries don weak against US dollar, with 10 of dem depreciate by more dan two percentage points compare to baseline projection.
Afreximbank warn say di shock don fuel currency depreciation across Africa, and say oil importing countries for Africa suffer pass because of high petroleum import bill and depreciating currency. Di report add say di direct pass-through of rising domestic pump price and transport cost don fuel inflation for many countries.
Afreximbank also caution say African currencies don depreciate, wey raise prospect of increase debt service and refinancing cost, as well as fiscal vulnerability. If di external shock continue, e go tighten global financial condition, weaken fiscal balance and put more pressure on foreign exchange reserve.
Despite all dis wahala, some African currencies still perform well. According to data from African Markets, out of 17 major African currencies wey dem track, 13 depreciate against US dollar between January and end of June, while only four record gain. Di strongest performers na countries wey benefit from strong commodity export, better investor confidence and good foreign exchange management.
Di first currency wey outperform na from a country wey get gain from copper export earning and investor confidence wey dey improve. Di second currency appreciate because of better foreign exchange liquidity, increase foreign portfolio inflow and reform wey dey improve efficiency for Nigeria foreign exchange market. Di third currency get support from demand for emerging market asset, resilient mineral export and investor confidence, even though domestic economic challenge dey. Di fourth currency, from Namibia, wey dey peg to South African rand, perform well because of strong regional investor sentiment and stability for Southern African financial market.
For Nigeria, dollar to naira exchange rate for July 8, 2026 show say official rate for Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) na benchmark for transaction. For parallel market, dollar dey sell for around ₦1,410 and buy for ₦1,400. Di gap between official and parallel market rate still show say demand for foreign exchange outside formal banking system dey, but di spread don reduce compare to before.
Central Bank of Nigeria dey continue reform to improve liquidity and encourage price discovery for official market. Market people dey monitor inflow from foreign investor, oil export earning and monetary policy decision to see how e go affect naira value.
