As Nigerians dey prepare for 2027 presidential election, political undercurrents dey shape the calculus of victory and failure. According to Paul Obi analysis, di battle go be tough for All Progressives Congress (APC), People’s Democratic Party (PDP), New Democratic Congress (NDC), and African Democratic Congress (ADC).
Inside APC, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu dey confident say di deal don done. He brag say di primary and general election wey bring am to power na tough, but now wey im be president, nobody go scare am. APC stalwarts like Senator Orji Uzor Kalu dey boast say di party dey rock like hurricane.
But di opposition dey get hope after Rabiu Kwankwaso defect to ADC and NDC, join forces with Peter Obi camp. Dis move expose di ruling party and show say dem fit defeat Tinubu and APC. Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) shenanigans wey Abuja Federal High Court nullify and void also add to di panic mood.
For di far North, mobilisation against Tinubu second term ambition dey intense. Some say e surpass di one wey dem stage against Goodluck Jonathan for 2015. Di vexations of di North against Tinubu dey many: Muslim-Muslim ticket wey dem see as political hoodwink, neglect and marginalization of rest of country except South West, complete takeover of government by Lagos City Boys, self-inflicted economic hardship, incarceration of Northern heavy weights like Nasir Ahmed El-Rufai while freeing others, and fear say Tinubu go restructure Nigeria to True Fiscal Federalism wey di North oppose.
Di dynamics of di calculus dey put to test with where di pendulum swing to for di North and partly South-South. For January 2027, di North go either dethrone President Tinubu or hand am second term. Di million-dollar question: whether di North go overcome Peter Obi presidency wey pledge single term of four years, or stay with Atiku Abubakar wey presidential ambition barely resonate for Southern states but fit sweep Northern votes wholly. Also, whether Goodluck Jonathan go enter race.
Arithmetically, Tinubu get South-west. For South-south, First Lady Remi Tinubu, Senate President Godswil Akpabio, and Minister of FCT Nyesom Wike don lock down di zone. For Delta, Governor Sheriff Oborevwori, Senator Ifeanyi Okowa, and James Ibori fit hold sway. But Gen Zs fit teach dem another lesson just like for 2023. Akwa Ibom, Obi in-law, go be hard nut for opposition. For Cross River, Governor Out lieutenants like Ambassador Soni Abang dey fortify vote banks to avoid shame of losing to Peter Obi. South-south and North-central na swing states for 2027.
South-east dey completely check in for Peter Obi. Di whole battle shift to three Northern zones. Real headache for Tinubu dey for North-east and North-west. For Bauchi, Tinubu endorsement event go up in smoke, turn violent and anti-Tinubu rally. Speaker Abbas Tajudeen recently get attack for Zaria, Kaduna State for campaigning for Asiwaju. Wetin go happen for Jigawa, Kebbi, Sokoto, and Kano?
Strategically, di calculus of victory and failure depend on wetin happen with opposition, mostly Nyesom Wike led PDP, NDC, and ADC. With Obi and Kwankwaso defect to NDC, di expected unified single front don bust and derail. Opposition must navigate murky political waters of Atiku, Obi, Kwankwaso, Rotimi Amaechi, and Jonathan dilly-dallying ambition. Who go call di shots? With most popular Southern politician for Peter Obi and most popular Northern politician for Rabiu Kwankwaso, plus di duo boost 2027 polls with Obidient Movement and Kwankwasiyya Movement, Tinubu ambition go shake.
With Kwankwaso and Countryman Senator Seriaki Dickson, Obi fit avoid loopholes of not-too impressive presidential campaign like for 2023. But wetin if whole Northern Nigeria decide to vote for dia son Atiku Abubakar? Dat na another web of uncertainty.
For 2027, ending democratic carnage dey with citizens and voters. Nigeria dey deal with sophisticated voters or tribalists with voter ID to thump-print for fellow tribesmen? For di North, dem must first overcome dia own phobias and political frailty. Overall, whether Obi and Kwankwaso get political gravitas to undo Asiwaju for January 2027? Whether Atiku get hidden magic wane? How about Jonathan? Di answers dey around acts of omission and commission hovering around APC, NDC, Wike-PDP, and ADC; and di dichotomies of North and South. Dere dey di calculus of victory and failure for Africa biggest democracy.
