Tinubu go choose Wike over Fubara for 2027 – Analyst

For di merciless arithmetic of Nigerian power politics, loyalty na di only currency wey never dey lose value. As di kontinu dey rush towards 2027 general elections, di political battlefield of Rivers State dey crackle again with dangerous electricity.

At di centre of dis matter na triangle wey for don give Machiavelli pause: President Bola Ahmed Tinubu; Nyesom Wike, Federal Capital Territory Minister; and Siminalayi Fubara, di sitting governor of Rivers State. Di question wey dey set political circles ablaze na simply: heading into 2027, how useful be Fubara to Tinubu?

Examined through di cold, unforgiving lens of power politics, di answer clear well-well. Before Nyesom Wike handpick am, Siminalayi Fubara na political unknown – a competent, quiet technocrat wey rise through di civil service to become accountant-general. Completing im second term as governor for 2023, Wike need successor wey im fit trust – and control. Im no just endorse Fubara; im engineer im entire political existence.

But wetin godfathers often forget be say you no fit hand man power without also giving am di instinct to use am. Di peace last barely four months. By October 2023, bitter feud erupt over control of di state political machinery. For di chaotic months wey follow, we see bombing of di House of Assembly complex, di defection of 27 pro-Wike lawmakers to APC, and even a temporary, federally declared state of emergency. Although dem reinstate Fubara, im remain institutionally weakened, staring down di barrel of 2027.

To understand Fubara utility to Tinubu, one must ask: don any sitting Rivers State governor ever survive going against a more powerful federal adversary backed by Abuja? Di answer arrive a decade ago. For 2015, Rotimi Amaechi na arguably di most powerful governor for Nigeria, serving as chairman of governors forum and boasting deep state resources. Im defect to APC and go all out for Muhammadu Buhari. Against am stand Nyesom Wike – then merely a junior minister of state for education, without gubernatorial immunity. Armed with federal backing and a consolidated local network, Wike deliver absolute electoral massacre: 1,029,102 votes to APC candidate 124,896. An 87% obliteration.

If Wike, as junior minister for 2015, fit reduce a sitting governor structure to rubble, di arithmetic of wetin a fully empowered Wike fit do as senior cabinet member for 2027 clear. Fubara suppose study dat history. More importantly, Tinubu don already do am. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu no build political empire by making emotional decisions. Im na political chess master wey identify allies, reward loyalty, and cut loose those wey don expire.

When observers argue say Tinubu “need Fubara” simply because a sitting governor fit mobilise state resources, dem dey count assets without looking at liabilities. A governor wey im assembly split, wey im local elections dem contest, and wey im party structure dey shambles, no be asset. Im na liability wearing asset cloth. For 2015, Amaechi go all out for Buhari, yet Rivers State still vote overwhelmingly for Goodluck Jonathan. If a deeply entrenched Amaechi no fit deliver di state, wetin an embattled Fubara fit deliver? Considerably less than nothing – especially if backing am mean alienating di godfather wey actually command di grassroots.

Wike bring organisational muscle, a cross-party coalition, and something money no fit buy: proven loyalty at a moment when loyalty cost am dearly. For 2023, Wike risk im entire political career, cross im party, and absorb di fury of im colleagues to back Tinubu. For politics, debts flow upward, and Tinubu owe Wike a moral and political debt. Fubara don recently dey see at APC screening exercises for Abuja, attempting to thread di impossible needle of seeking re-election under di very party Wike heavily influence. But di political mathematics dey resolve itself for real time.

To choose Fubara over Wike go be to reward betrayal with protection. E go signal to every ally across Nigeria say loyalty no carry guaranteed return. No leader fit afford to send dat message. Fubara receive everything from im godfather, and when di bill come, im refuse to pay. No political sin greater than betrayal. Dante place betrayers for di lowest circle of hell; Julius Caesar last words dey directed at a betraying friend. For Nigerian politics, where di memory of grudges outlast di memory of favours, betrayal never dey forgotten. Di useful man no be always di man with di title. Di useful man na di one wey, when di river run dry, find water. Nyesom Wike don always find water.