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Europa League 2026-27: Opta supercomputer say Bournemouth go win

Di opening round of league phase matches for di 2026-27 Europa League campaign go start on Wednesday evening. Dat day come one day earlier than di competition usual slot.

Normally, fixtures for both Europa League and Conference League dey play on Thursday nights. Some exceptions dey made during di season when fixture clash with other European matches for similar geographical area, and dat fit make dem reschedule games.

But on Wednesday, nine of di 18 games wey dem schedule for match week one of di Europa League league phase dey take place. Di other nine go play on Thursday during di Europa League dedicated game week of di season. Sunderland, AC Milan, Benfica and Lyon dey among di teams wey go dey in action on Wednesday.

Di Champions League also get exclusive week, and e dey take place for di opening round of fixtures. Last week, games for Europe top tier league happen across Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Di Conference League also get im own designated week. But dis one dey take place in December for di final round of league phase matches. Dis first happen for di 2024-25 season when, like di Champions League and Conference League, dem reformat di competition into league phase system.

Ahead of di start of di league phase of di 2026-27 Europa League, di Opta supercomputer don run 10,000 simulations of di season. Di Europa League restart dis week for another season, with 36 teams ready for eight-matchday league phase wey go run from Wednesday night until mid-January.

By di end of those games, dem go sort di teams into one huge table, with di top eight progressing to di last 16, and di teams wey finish from positions nine through 24 go contest play-off round to also make am into di knockout stage. From there, na straight knockout format to whittle everybody down to final two wey go contest di final for Frankfurt Waldstadion on 26 May 2027.

Last year, Aston Villa lift di trophy, but dia success mean say dem automatically qualify for di Champions League. So, once again, we go get different Europa League winner dis season. Dis season English contingent, made up of Bournemouth, Sunderland and Crystal Palace, fit fancy dia chances after Villa success, after Tottenham win di Europa League di year before, meaning we don get Premier League winners of dis particular competition two years running.

Ahead of last season competition, di Opta supercomputer predict say Villa go victorious before a ball kick. And dis time around, di supercomputer don run 10,000 simulations of di Europa League campaign, and another Premier League side don become favourites to win di whole thing.

For dia first-ever season in Europe, Bournemouth na di favourites to go all di way and win di Europa League in 2026-27. Some question marks bin dey around di Cherries after another summer of upheaval, dis time with manager Andoni Iraola departing for Liverpool and key centre-back Marcos Senesi leaving on free to Spurs, but dem don start well under Marco Rose, and di supercomputer dey back dem to remain strong for di whole season.

Di Opta supercomputer don run 10,000 simulations of di season and Rose side manage di balance of domestic and European football well enough to win di Europa League more times (14.3%) than any other team. Bournemouth also finish top of di league phase for more simulations (15.1%) than any other side.

Dem however get plenty stiff competition, with one very close competitor for di favourite badge and five more teams not too far behind for dia hopes of winning di competition, according to di supercomputer. Benfica dey only just behind Bournemouth, winning di Europa League for 14.0% of simulations.

Di Portuguese giants, then led by José Mourinho, finish third for di Primeira Liga last season, but now another boss wey Premier League clubs sabi dey manage dem, with former Fulham head coach Marco Silva now in charge. Benfica don win five and draw one of dia six league games dis season, scoring more goals (21) than any other team. Across Europe top 10 leagues, only Slavia Prague (23) and PSV (22) don score more. Benfica currently just one place below Bournemouth for di Opta Power Rankings, hence dem having only marginally lower chance of winning di competition.

Third favourites to win di Europa League na Bayer Leverkusen, who dey back in dis competition after desperately disappointing 2025-26, when dem finish sixth for di Bundesliga, just two years after winning di title while going unbeaten for di whole season under Xabi Alonso. Now under relatively unproven former Toulouse manager, Carles Martínez Novell, Leverkusen be rather more of unknown quantity than dem don be for previous years; dia opening-day defeat to Bundesliga new boys Elversberg na case in point. Di supercomputer reckon say dem dey among di teams with di best chance of winning di Europa League, though, doing so for 10.2% of simulations.

Union Saint-Gilloise be something of surprise dis high up for di supercomputer estimations, but dem win 8.6% of simulations. Last season Belgian Pro League runners-up go into di Champions League qualifiers dis summer but dem just edged out by Bodø/Glimt, and so dem end up for di Europa League. Dem don start di domestic season impressively, and go provide stern opposition for anybody dem play, even if dia name no carry as much weight as some of di other teams for di competition.

Sunderland, back in Europe for just di second time for dia history after taking part for di 1973-74 Cup Winners’ Cup, fit dey in contention for European glory if di supercomputer projections correct. For dia only other season in Europe, dem win two-legged first-round game but dem then knocked out by Sporting CP for di second round. Dem go play at least twice as many matches dis time around (eight), but dem go dey hope to go deep for di competition. Dem dey given 82.3% chance of making di last 16, and 8.3% chance of going all di way and winning di whole thing. Dat one largely based on dia supremely impressive campaign last season, but then, dem no bin have to manage domestic and European schedules at di same time. Dat na something dem never really have to do, so e go dey interesting to see how dem fare.

Juventus win 7.8% of di supercomputer simulations, but while dem be enormous club with tonnes of pedigree on dis stage, having won di UEFA Cup three times, di Cup Winners’ Cup once and di European Cup/Champions League twice, dia most recent European triumph bin back in 1995-96. Di Old Lady be something of fallen giant, and dis competition provide decent chance for dem to get back to winning ways.

Crystal Palace dey next, with 7.3% chance of winning di Europa League. Dem suddenly get pedigree for continental competition, after winning di Conference League for dia first season in Europe last season. Milan win 5.3% of di supercomputer simulations of di season and cannot be ruled out, while Rennes (3.9%), Lyon (3.2%), and Hoffenheim (2.3%), round up di teams with more than 2% chance.

For 10,000 simulations of di 2026-27 Europa League season, two of di 36 entrants fail to win di competition even once: Torreense of Portugal and OFI Crete of Greece. For di supercomputer eyes, dem get next to no chance of winning di Europa League. Ararat-Armenia of Armenia win for just one simulation, meaning dem get 0.01% chance of glory. Celje of Slovenia win two simulations, Lillestrøm of Norway and Hapoel Be’er Sheva of Israel win six each (0.06%) and NEC of Netherlands win seven. Every other team win at least 0.2% of di simulations.