Lagos — Oga Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE (DPRP) don finally open him mouth and talk him price: ₦525.00 for one share. With that price, the whole company value at listing na around ₦65.22 trillion. Na the biggest refinery for Africa we dey talk about, no be small thing.
Before the offer, dem value the company equity at ₦63,067,680,848,025.00 — around ₦63.07 trillion. But when e land market, the number jump go ₦65,220,180,848,025.00 — around ₦65.22 trillion. If you subtract the two, e mean say the offer dey raise something like ₦2.15 trillion new money for the company.
So make we yarn am one by one, so you go sabi wetin you dey buy.
The Offer At A Glance
| Wetin | How e be |
|---|---|
| Price for one share | ₦525.00 |
| Value before listing | ₦63.07 trillion |
| Value at listing | ₦65.22 trillion |
| Money wey the offer dey raise (implied) | ~₦2.15 trillion |
| Total shares after offer (implied) | ~124.23 billion |
| New shares dem dey sell (implied) | ~4.10 billion |
| Free float (implied) | ~3.3% |
| Net Debt-to-EBITDA | 0.27x (30 June 2026) |
(The share count, the money dem dey raise and the float na we calculate am from the price and the market cap wey dem release. The prospectus no talk am direct.)
Now see this one well: the free float na only around 3.3%. That one na the most important thing wey a person wey wan buy suppose know. E mean say Dangote family still hold the company tight tight. E good for control, but e mean say the share no go dey change hand anyhow for market — so if small people rush am, price fit jump; if people begin sell, e fit fall sharp sharp. No be deep market.
The Turnaround Na The Real Story
The refinery start commercial production for January 2024. By February 2026, e pass nameplate test at 650,000 barrels per day (bpd). Come June 2026, dem rerate the single-train capacity go 700,000 bpd.
And the money? See how e take turn:
- Revenue: ₦19.13 trillion ($13.91 billion) for H1 2026. Last year same period na ₦8.64 trillion ($5.56 billion) — that one na 121.5% jump for naira, 150.0% for dollar. Full year 2025, revenue stand at ₦18.74 trillion ($12.33 billion).
- Gross Profit: ₦3.43 trillion ($2.50 billion) for H1 2026. For FY 2025 na ₦348.40 billion ($229.26 million). And for FY 2024, dem dey lose ₦887.81 billion ($599.78 million) for gross level.
- Operating Profit: ₦3.25 trillion ($2.37 billion) for H1 2026, against ₦222.68 billion ($146.53 million) for FY 2025.
- Profit Before Tax: ₦2.90 trillion ($2.11 billion) for H1 2026. Last FY 2025 na loss of ₦723.06 billion ($475.81 million).
- Profit After Tax: ₦2.50 trillion ($1.82 billion) for H1 2026. Before na same ₦723.06 billion loss for FY 2025.
Gross profit margin climb from 1.86% for FY 2025 reach 17.9% for H1 2026 — because as dem dey sell plenty, fixed cost dey spread thin thin and petrol (PMS) sales blow up.
Wetin ₦525 Actually Dey Buy?
The prospectus no release Earnings Per Share (EPS), so we do our own calculation. Make dis table no deceive you — na we calculate am:
| Wetin we calculate | How we take do am | Answer |
|---|---|---|
| H1 2026 EPS | ₦2.50trn PAT ÷ ~124.23bn shares | ~₦20.12 |
| Yearly EPS | H1 × 2 | ~₦40.25 |
| P/E (yearly) | ₦525 ÷ ~₦40.25 | ~13.0x |
| Net asset value per share (after offer) | ₦16.83trn ÷ ~124.23bn shares | ~₦135.48 |
| Price-to-Book (after offer) | ₦525 ÷ ~₦135.48 | ~3.9x |
| Earnings yield (yearly) | ~₦40.25 ÷ ₦525 | ~7.7% |
(Na we compute all dis one — e no dey inside the prospectus. We assume H1 performance go hold and naira go stable. Na rough guide only, no be promise.)
Two thing jump out. One: ~13x yearly P/E no be wicked price for a company wey revenue dey grow triple digit. But you must discount am — refinery margin dey move up and down like Lagos traffic, and H1 2026 fit be one very sweet half wey no go repeat every time.
Two: the offer dey price the company at ~3.9x book value. That na fat premium on top net assets. Meaning say if operation wobble small, market no go give you soft landing.
The Balance Sheet Na Your Pillow
As at 30 June 2026, DPRP hold ₦5.89 trillion ($4.27 billion) cash and cash equivalents. Total secured borrowings na $5.67 billion. Net Debt-to-EBITDA ratio na just 0.27x — very low for any refinery anywhere for the world.
Total equity (net assets) stand at ₦14,677,634 million — around ₦14.68 trillion ($10.63 billion).
Na that number be the foundation. Market dey pay around ₦63.07 trillion before listing for ₦14.68 trillion of net assets plus ₦2.50 trillion half-year profit. So you see the gap.
Shariah Screening: See The Koko
For Muslim investors wey dey follow halal rules, company release him screening ratios. Dem measure am against the company equity value:
| Screening | Result | Naira amount (we estimate) |
|---|---|---|
| Interest-bearing borrowings ÷ equity value | 13.9950% | ~₦8.83 trillion |
| Interest-earning deposits & investments ÷ equity value | 2.1542% | ~₦1.36 trillion |
| Non-permissible income ÷ total revenue | 0.3564% | ~₦68.18 billion |
(The naira amounts na we calculate — we apply the percentage on the equity value and H1 2026 revenue. Dem no release am as naira figure.)
The first one na him you go watch. Plenty Shariah screen dey cap interest-bearing debt at 33% of market cap or total assets, and the interest income cap usually dey around one-third. On that standard, DPRP pass well well — e dey inside limit. Non-permissible income of 0.3564% of revenue also dey far below the usual 5% allowance.
But make we talk true: different scholar and different index provider get different method. Some dey measure against market cap, some dey use total assets. So before you put your money, confirm with your own Shariah board which standard dem dey use.
Wetin The Refinery Dey Produce
For the 12 months wey end 30 June 2026, output split like this: PMS (petrol) 39.9%, Diesel/AGO 21.4%, Jet Fuel/ATF 20.6%, RCO + CBFS 16.6%, LPG 1.3%, and Polypropylene 0.2%.
The plant Nelson Complexity Index na 11.5 — well pass emerging market average of 8.9. Meaning say from one barrel, e dey squeeze more value pass the normal refinery.
And the infrastructure wey hold am? 570 MW captive gas-fired power plant, 4.70 billion litres tank storage, 1,100 km subsea and onshore pipeline, 5 offshore Single Point Moorings (SPM), and 10,000 CNG-powered trucks. That one no be small.
Growth Plan: $14.3 Billion
Management no dey sit down dey look. Dem dey run phased $14.30 billion expansion to add second Crude Distillation Unit (CDU), and by 2029 dem wan almost double refining capacity to about 1.40 million bpd.
No be only fuel. Dem wan grow polypropylene from 830,000 tpa reach 2.40 million mtpa by 2030 through propane dehydrogenation (PDH) unit. Dem wan build Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB) plant of 400,000 tpa, add base oil plant for lubricant, and expand LPG. For region, dem wan build storage tank farm for Namibia to serve Southern Africa.
How Dem Dey Handle Risk
- Crude Oil: Around 60% dey come from long-term contract with NNPC Limited under Domestic Crude Supply Obligation, and about 40% dem dey buy for international spot market.
- Dollar/FX: Dem dey match Naira purchase with Naira sales where e possible, and dem dey price local sales on import-parity basis wey dey tied to US Dollar.
- One-site risk: Dem dey manage am with captive utilities, Permit to Work system, predictive maintenance and offshore SPM loading.
- Tax: The company dey operate under Oil and Gas Free Zones Authority (OGFZA) regime, and e dey adapt to Second Schedule of the Nigeria Tax Act.
Governance And ESG
Board get 10 members, Chairman na Alhaji Aliko Dangote, GCON, and Managing Director/CEO na David Bird. Four committee dey supervise: Audit and Risk; Finance and Investment; Remuneration, Governance and General-Purpose; and Technical and Sustainability.
For HSE in H1 2026: 24 management safety walkarounds, 257 training sessions wey cover 5,510 people, 248 near-miss evaluations, and 8 emergency mock drills. For community, dem give university scholarship, build 6 classroom blocks, do youth vocational training, give interest-free loan to women entrepreneurs, repair road, sink borehole and plant mangrove.
Wetin Still Remain Unclear
Even though we don see the price now, three thing still dey open:
- Dividend — Dem never declare or pay dividend before. After listing, dem wan pay dividend in US Dollar, but e go depend on distributable profit, board approval and wetin the business need for capital. At ~13x P/E and ~7.7% earnings yield, the payout ratio na him go decide whether your money go really work for you.
- No trading history — DPRP never trade for Nigerian Exchange before. So no price record, no liquidity benchmark. You no get road map for exit.
- Float na only ~3.3% — small float be like two sides of one coin. Scarcity fit push price up, but e mean say big institutional investor no go fit enter and comot anyhow, and price fit swing on small volume.
And note this one: the summary never talk the subscription timetable, how dem go share the allocation, and where exactly the ~₦2.15 trillion proceeds go. All that one dey inside the full prospectus.
The Bottom Line
At ₦525 per share, Dangote Refinery dey ask investor to pay around 13 times yearly earnings and 3.9 times book value for one company wey already build finish, wey no too carry debt (0.27x net debt-to-EBITDA), wey dey bring cash, and wey get $14.3 billion growth plan plus strong grip on West African fuel market. The Shariah screening pass with space to spare.
But the wahala dey clear too: single-site risk, dependence on crude supply, FX and regulatory palava, refinery margin wey dey go up and down, thin free float, and no dividend history at all.
Before, the big question na “at what price?” Now we don hear the price. The only work wey remain na for you to decide: 13x too cheap for refinery wey just dey find him leg? Or you wan wait and see am first?
Na your call. Do your own homework.
This report na based on Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE prospectus summary and the IPO metrics wey dem release, plus our own calculation wey we mark as calculation. E no be investment advice. Before you subscribe, read the full prospectus well well.
