Elon Musk don talk many tins about future. From making human beings colonize Mars to filling American roads with robotaxis by 2020, di man wey be world richest no dey fear to yarn big dreams. But according to New York Times analysis wey check 600 predictions wey Musk don make for di last 15 years, only about 19% don come true. Still, as di person wey dey control plenty big tech companies, im predictions dey make people believe say future wey we dey see for sci-fi fit really happen.
On Tuesday, Musk join SpaceX call after di company release im first-ever earnings report. Di report show say SpaceX generate $7.8 billion revenue, wey be 92% increase compared to di year before. But di good news no end there. Di company capital expenditure na $18.4 billion, wey be 557% increase over 2025. As e dey happen, SpaceX stock wey once reach $225 drop more than 8% on Tuesday evening, and by Wednesday afternoon e don fall 12% go $109 per share.
During di call, Musk talk about im vision for SpaceX and humanity. E make three predictions wey stand out. First, e believe say SpaceX fit reach $1 trillion revenue by 2030. No company ever don record one trillion dollars revenue for one year, but Musk say “prior to IPO, financial projections reach $1 trillion in 2031. Now we expect am for 2030. There’s a non-zero chance of that being in 2029.” Dis one pass di forecasts wey Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley don make. Dem project SpaceX 2030 revenue at $470 billion and $330 billion respectively. Di main wahala na capital expenditure wey come 40% higher than expected, and AI costs fit keep rising. But with companies like Anthropic dey pay SpaceX $1.25 billion every month for AI computing power, and Musk say dem dey rapidly expand compute capacity, those cheques fit multiply.
Di second prediction na say Starlink go provide majority of world internet for less than ten years. E be true say di world get about six billion internet users, while Starlink don get 12 million subscribers wey be about 0.2% of dem. But Musk say “it’s not out of question” say di company go achieve am for less than 10 years, though e add say “at least for countries where wey dem allow us to operate.” Starlink service dey available for more than 155 countries and markets. E double im subscribers year-over-year with 12 million, but dat one still fall short of expectations. Still, Starlink na di only profitable part of SpaceX, wey pull more than a billion dollars, even though revenue per subscriber don drop $20 since last year because of lower-tier plans.
Di third prediction na di boldest one. Musk talk say e wan use robots “to scale up manufacturing on the moon” to build factories, mass accelerator, and enable solar and radiator production. E even say dis one sound “super sci-fi right now” but “it go happen.” Before now, Musk dey always talk about colonizing Mars, but dis year e don shift to building factories on moon because of better travel capabilities. TechCrunch write say building on moon “would require a lot more of Musk’s other dreams coming true first,” including making am “dramatically cheaper to get to space” to carry raw materials. Some people dey think say di idea no too far-fetched because e fit benefit NASA and di country. As for timeline, SpaceX president and COO Gwyn Shotwell add say dem dey aim for “boots on the moon in 2028.”
SpaceX no reply to Moneywise request for comment on Musk predictions. Before any lunar factories, SpaceX face another test on Earth. Thursday lockup expiration of nearly 912 million company shares threaten to trigger massive selloff. Some analysts dey expect heavy selling from early investors wey wan make huge profit. But as e turn out, no mass selloff happen. SpaceX shares rise 6% on Thursday, and if e hold, e fit show say investors get more faith for di lofty visions than some analysts think. More shares go unlock for August, September, October and December.
Musk still get confidence for im team. E say “The SpaceX team is solving some of the hardest engineering problems in the history of humanity. I think the team is succeeding because I think we’ve got, in a lot of ways, the smartest, most dedicated team of humans that has ever existed.”
